Who to Start, Who to Sit–Week 7
Quarterbacks
Start: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts. This might be misleading because the Colts defense has actually been great against the pass, and has only allowed one touchdown through the air all season long. But two things make me think that Rodgers is a good play this week. One, here are the teams the Colts have played so far: Chicago, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Houston, and Baltimore. Is there an actual decent NFL quarterback on any of those teams? Besides Andre Johnson can you name a receiver on these teams? Maybe a couple, but the Colts have been playing teams that can’t throw, so I don’t think it is necessarily a product of their defense that they have done so well. And Rodgers and the Pack’s attack rank 7th in the league passing the ball, and I think that he will have another quality game this week.
Start: Matt Schaub, Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions. I hate to pick on the Lions all the time, but they are in such disarray that it is hard not to pick them somewhere in this article. Schaub hasn’t exactly been Joe Montana, but he’s been pretty decent lately, and now gets the third worst pass defense in football who nearly averages giving up two passing scores a game. Andre Johnson has re-established himself as a stud in this league, and Schaub should be able to find him once, and perhaps Owen Daniels or Kevin Walter with another.
Sit: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills. Now I’m really crazy! Sit Rivers? Well, it is possible that he might have an off game this week. The Bills have been really tough against the pass, allowing just under 185 yards per game and only four touchdowns in five games. Plus, they are coming off their bye, so they have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Now, I’m not saying start David Garrard over Rivers, but if you have a similar or close to it option at QB, give it serious thought, or don’t be surprised if Rivers doesn’t have a huge game this weekend.
Sit: J.T. O’Sullivan, San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants. After getting everyone excited that San Francisco had finally found themselves their next quarterback, O’Sullivan has certainly come back to reality. He has thrown for under 200 yards in three of the last four weeks and has seven interceptions over that time. The Giants defense will be pissed off after being slapped around by the lowly Browns, and expect them to be all up in O’Sullivan’s grill all game long. He will throw for no more than 225 yards and probably have more interceptions than touchdown passes.
Running Backs
Start: Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Chiefs defense, meet the stud rookie running back. Stud rookie running back, meet the worst run defense in the NFL. The Titans are coming off a bye, which means they should be well rested and ready to run the ball right down Kansas City’s throats. Look for Johnson to approach 100 yards and his fourth rushing touchdown of the season as the Titans improve to 6-0 with six of the ugliest wins in the history of football. But there’s no style points here, wins is all that matter.
Start: Johnathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints. Ok, Mr. Stewart, this is your last chance. I have been pumping you up all season and you have been disappointing me and fantasy players for the past month. You even allowed an inferior DeAngelo Williams to have a three touchdown game! You are on notice. If you suck this week, I will never suggest starting you again! C’mon, it’s the Saints run defense. They are among the league’s worst and allow average at best and allow over 100 yards on the ground per game, he’s gotta play well.
Sit: Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens. This crazy-ass Wildcat offense has been working for weeks now, and I can’t figure out why teams aren’t ready for it yet. Brown has been a stud for three weeks now, but this week, Ray and the Boys play the Dolphins. You can try that circus stuff if you want, but I don’t know how successful it will be against Baltimore. They have only allowed one rushing touchdown this week, and only 66 yards a game on the ground. That is not a recipe for success for Brown in Week 7.
Sit: Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If Baltimore has been stout only allowing one rushing touchdown, then the Bucs have been just a little bit better as they have allowed NO ONE in the end zone on the ground yet this year. That has to end eventually, but I don’t see it being this week against the suddenly wimpy Seahawks. If Matt Hasselbeck is still able to go, look for the Bucs to load the box up as they have no reason to fear Charlie Frye beating them with his arm. Should be a tough road for Jones this week.
Wide Receivers
Start: Wes Welker, New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos. Everyone seems to be down on the Patriots offense, and for good reason. They have been just a shell of their former selves with Matt Cassel filling in for Tom Brady. But through this whole tough transition, Wes Welker is still putting up decent fantasy stats. He isn’t finding the end zone, which hurts his value, but he hasn’t had less than six catches in any game this year. Denver’s pass defense is rated last in the NFL, so this looks like as good a week as any to play the Patriots receivers.
Start: Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets vs. Oakland Raiders. I doubt Favre has another six touchdown game in that arm, bu he should have a pretty good matchup against the Raiders. And who has been the most consistent receivers in New York (New Jersey if you want to be technical) this season? It has been Cotchery who has 26 receptions this season, including an eight catch effort last week. Look for Favre and Cotchery to hook up deep at least once in this game, as he could have 100 yards and a score.
Sit: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans. The Titans pass defense is ranked fifth in the league, and the Chiefs passing game has looked like it belongs at the high school level at times this season. This has nothing to do with what I think of the talent of Bowe, but it just isn’t a matchup that I expect him to do well against. Led by Courtland Finnegan, the Titans allow just 172 passing yards a game and have only surrendered one touchdown through the air. This is a week to play a better option, unless bye weeks have it so you need to play Bowe.
Sit: Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals. This might shock you, but the Bengals pass defense is actually ranked fourth in the league at under 175 yards a game. Big Ben has been having a tough season injury wise, but he has been a trooper and been playing through it. Holmes has yet to break 100 yards, catch more than five balls, and has only found the end zone once in five games. While it seemed that he would take over as the go to guy in Pittsburgh, Roethlisberger has still been looking Hines Ward’s way all year long.
Tight End
Start: Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders vs. New York Jets. The Jets are fifth from the bottom in the NFL against the pass, and Miller should be the best receiving option for the Raiders. You kind of have to throw out last week’s game against the Saints, because nothing was going right for Oakland. Miller has potential to be a young QBs best friend, and if JaMarcus Russell were to have a good game, you can bet that Miller will as well.
Sit: Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers. Peyton and the Colts finally woke up last week when not many people were expecting it against Baltimore. Every one woke up, except for Dallas Clark of course. Clark has been a bitter disappointment for fantasy owners who were hoping that he could repeat his 12 TD performance from last year. But he hasn’t found pay dirt even once yet this year, and only has 12 catches. The Packers are among the league’s top ten pass defenses, and it could be another tough day for Dallas Clark.
As always, your comments and questions (adds/drops, trades, lineup advice, etc) are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Need more Fighting Chance? I am now writing a weekly column over at Bruno Boys Fantasy Football. You can check out this week’s article at http://screamingsports.com/brunoboys/archive/2008/10/15/fantasy-football-week-6-winners-amp-losers.aspx.
Guest Columnist – Ryan Hallam…
Biography: The creator of Fighting Chance Fantasy Sports , Ryan Hallam brings a decade of fantasy experience…
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I have both Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb on a bye this week. Another owner in our league has Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers on a bye next week. I have been offered Cutler for Warner in a trade. What do you think?
JR,
Take it immediately!!!!!!!!!! Cutler is younger, more durable, and just flat out better than Warner. I would start him every week even though McNabb is doing well.
Go get it!! Let me know if it goes through.
Ryan
Ryan,
The Cutler for Warner trade went through. I have not seen any promising talk of Addai playing this week. Have you?
JR
JR,
Awesome, that is a great deal for you. Not only did you get your bye week replacement, but you might have gotten a starter.
I haven’t seen anything promising about Addai, but I guess it is a far outside shot. Right now I wouldn’t count on him playing. He is sitting my benches in the leagues I have him in.
Ryan
the bengals pass defense numbers do not surprise me: bad teams often have artificially inflated stats because opposing teams, quickly ahead, stop passing toward the end of the game.
I have the good fortune of having brandon jacobs brian westbrook ladanian tomlinson and chris johnson in a twelve team league. Westbrook is on the bye week and I’m having a hard time deciding to bench l t … But the matchups for johnson and jacobs are so favorable… Am I starting the right two ?
Hey,
I have Cutler and tony romo and philip rivers!
I have two spots for this week but i got offered rogers for rivers for this week what should i do?
Hoppie,
I understand your reasoning, but they are fourth in the league against the pass. But they have given up between 20-31 points all year long, it isn’t like they are getting blown out. Their worst loss is by 17 to Tennessee but other than that they are all relatively competitive games.
Ryan
Luke,
That is a really tough call, but I think you might have to sit LT. Besides the matchups that clearly favor Johnson and Jacobs, Tomlinson has been inconsistent this season. All that being said, not sure that I would be able to sit the man. Tough call, reasoning says sit him, but fantasy history says no way. But I would be surprised if Jacobs and Johnson didn’t both outscore him.
Ryan
J-Unit,
Unless you’ve seen something I haven’t about Romo definitely playing, I would go with Cutler and Rivers.
Both Rodgers and Rivers have been great this season. Rivers has a little more history, but he has never been this good. I might take that trade, maybe try to get a small advantage somewhere else. I think the consensus opinion would be Rivers has a little more value, especially considering some of the injury concerns that Rodgers has had this year.
Ryan
One more thing I traded chris chambers for eddie royal earlier in the season, to be able to cash in on all the points they were scoring … Do you think that trade will pay out more over time ? Or do you think the denver broncos just hit the ground running this year, while other teams are just now coming full stride ?
Luke,
I’ve never been a huge fan of Chambers for some reason. He’s had a couple good seasons, but he hasn’t had more than 5 TDs in three years. He already has four this season, but now he is hurt. Royal actually seems to be a similar player and has been dealing with some injuries of his own. As good as Rivers has been, I actually like Cutler better and think that at worst Royal will put up similar numbers to Chambers depending on who is healthier. But personally I like Royal a little bit more.
Ryan
Thanks for the advice!
Ill need help for next week!
I’ll be here, looking forward to it.
Do you think my team is bad because i dont know why but I keep loosing!
QB Tony Romo Reggie Bush Chris Johnson
(Dal QB) NO – RB) Ten – RB)
Philip Rivers Anthony Fasano
Mia – TE)
(SD – QB)
Terrell Owens Jason Hanson
(Det – K)
(Dal – WR)
Plaxico Burress DEF New England
(NE – DEF)
(NYG – WR)
Eddie Royal
(Den – WR)
J-Unit,
Your team isn’t bad at all. Both your QBs have been good, unfortunately you caught the Romo injury, but Rivers is good. Bush and Chris Johnson are good, now you have Bush out a while. And Owens, Burress, and Royal are all good to decent receivers. Fasano I would look to upgrade, and the NE DEF is fairly solid. If you didn’t have so many injuries, it would be much better.
Ryan
ok what do you think about chad johnson .. should i pick him up and if so for who>?
J Unit,
I think Chad will have a better second half than first, but I don’t see anyone I would drop on your team for him.
Ryan
Thanks a lot Ryan
I need a QB this week . Should I pick up Pennington or Edwards!!???
J-Unit,
I always like Edwards, but Pennington has been good lately as well. But I think the Bills offense will keep Pennington in check, so I would go with Trent Edwards.
Ryan