Who To Start, Who To Sit–Week 12
We are coming down the stretch now and these decisions become more and more important as most of you are probably still in the thick of your playoff races. Every win is bigger and your roster calls are crucial. Here’s to hoping guys on your team are playing the Lions!
Quarterbacks
Start: Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers. For Cowboys’ fans and Romo’s fantasy owners it must have been good therapy to see their team leader back on the field. And although he didn’t play particularly well (198 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT), just his presence was enough to get that team ready to beat a division rival in a game they had to have. This week the rust should be off and he gets to have what amounts to a little more than a scrimmage against the terrible Niners’ defense. Too bad for San Francisco that the Rams are only one the schedule twice, because St. Louis made this team look good. However, the rest of the season the Niners have been bad on defense, especially against the pass ranking 25th in the league and allowing 15 passing touchdowns. Romo should have 250-275 yards and two or three touchdowns.
Start: Eli Manning, New York Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals. The Giants relied on their rush game in crushing the Baltimore Ravens, but this week it should be an aerial show as they face their old stopgap in Kurt Warner and the high flying Cardinals offense. The G-Men have been great at morphing into whatever kind of team they need to be to win the game. Some weeks it is the three headed rushing attack, some weeks it is Eli Manning whipping the ball around the field. I see this being a big weekend for the younger Manning as the Cardinals have allowed a league high 19 touchdowns through the air and the Giants will need to score big points to keep up with Arizona. Eli should have a minimum of two touchdown passes and could easily have three.
Sit: Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens. I think you should sit Donovan McNabb just for the simple fact that he said that he didn’t know NFL games could end in a tie! C’mon Donovan, you can’t be serious! My 2 year old daughter knows that NFL games can end in a tie! And the five month old is starting to figure it out too. Guess it is that high class Syracuse education. But, boy was that game pathetic or what? McNabb and Company could move the ball against the crushing defense (feel the sarcasm) of the mighty Bengals and put up plenty of yards but just 13 points. This week the Ravens are the opponent, and if the Eagles couldn’t score against Cincy, what are they going to do against Ray Lewis and the Punishers from Baltimore? Don’t expect more than 200 yards and one score from McNabb this week.
Sit: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts. This is one of my picks for Week 12 that I will go way out on a limb. Rivers has already tied last year’s total for touchdown passes with 21 and is having a great year. However, this week the opponent is the Colts. That might not seem like a reason to sit a guy who is probably going to the Pro Bowl, but if you look at the numbers for the Indy pass defense I think you will be surprised. They rank 9th in the league allowing just under 190 yards, but as we sit here preparing for Week 12 the Colts have only allowed two passing touchdowns all season long. That is amazing! In 10 games, two passing touchdowns allowed. Let that sink in for a second. Perhaps Rivers might get one, but I would be surprised to see that number go up much more than that given the Colts’ season.
Running Backs
Start: Steve Slaton, Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns. Slaton had a few tough games in a row before finally breaking out again on Sunday against Indianapolis. In Week 12 he faces a Cleveland defense is among the bottom handful of rushing defenses, and made Marshawn Lynch look like Jim Brown on Monday night. Look for Slaton to break the 100 yard mark again this week and score a touchdown.
Start: Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Even though the Chiefs have been playing better as of late, they still had nowhere to go but up. So, instead of being the worst rushing defense, they are now second to last. They have been gashed for over 165 yards per game and have allowed 16 rushing touchdowns already. Look for Lynch to have his second consecutive awesome game.
Sit: Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Smith has become the undisputed workhorse back for the Lions. You might not think that means much, but he has rushed for over 210 yards in the last two weeks. The Buccaneers have given up a decent amount of yardage, as they allow nearly 100 a game on average. However, fantasy football is won and lost on touchdowns, and the Bucs have only allowed one rushing touchdown all season long. This will most likely be a low scoring game, so don’t expect too much for Smith this week.
Sit: Thomas Jones, New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans. The Tennessee defense has been one of the strongest part of their team, but they have allowed a good number of rushing touchdowns this season (ten). They did allow a huge game to Maurice Jones-Drew last week, but I think that they will do a good job of shutting down Jones. I would be surprised if he got too far past 65 yards and I don’t expect him to score a touchdown this week.
Wide Receivers
Start: Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams vs. Chicago Bears. Avery set the fantasy world on fire earlier in the season, but had two consecutive horrible games before Week 11. Avery was back with nine catches for 93 yards against San Francisco. In Week 12 he gets another favorable matchup against the really weak Chicago pass defense that allows nearly 250 yards per game in the air. Avery should be back over 100 yards and I bet he gets in the endzone for the first time since Week 8.
Start: Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis Colts vs. San Diego Chargers. It is hard to target who is going to have a great game for the Colts this week, but given the fact that they are playing the worst pass defense in the NFL chances are at least one of their top three receivers will have a great game. Since it really isn’t much advice to start Reggie Wayne, I chose Gonzalez. It has been a few weeks since he had a good game, so he is due.
Sit: Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers. Ok, this is the other one that I am going well out on a limb with. White and Matt Ryan are having a great season together, but this week they have a really tough matchup against the fifth ranked Panthers defense who has only allowed eight passing touchdowns and average under 200 yards per game. If White is going to have a bad game, this should be the week that it is going to happen.
Sit: Mark Bradley, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills. Bradley has had three good games in a row since the Chiefs picked him up from the Bears and gave him a starting role. He has been one of the hotter pickups in all of fantasy. However, this week they face a Bills defense who held the Browns to under 200 yards and no touchdowns on Monday night. In fact, the Bills have only allowed seven rushing touchdowns all season long. Bradley should have a few more good games down the stretch, but I don’t think Week 12 will be one of them.
Tight End
Start: Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans. It has been quite a season for Winslow. There was injury, staph infection, fighting with his management, and then a huge statistical in Week 10. He had another poor game on Monday with just 40 yards against the Bills, but the Texans have allowed 17 passing touchdowns. Not only does he have the nice matchup, but with the insertion of Brady Quinn into the game the Browns’ offense has gotten more consistent.
Sit: Billy Miller, New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers. The best tight end in the Big Easy is not named Jeremy Shockey. Oh yeah, he might get the headlines and have the bigger mouth, but Miller is much less trouble and is just as good at catching the ball. However, the Packers are the third best team in the league against the pass, and although the Saints just throw the ball constantly, they will be getting Reggie Bush back this week, which will take targets away from everyone.
As always, your comments and questions (adds/drops, lineup advice, etc.) are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.
ryan…i’m doing well in my league…have been riding on phil rivers back for most of the season…picked up thigpen last week…should i drop thig and go for kerry or s hill for week 12??is rivers losing his worth?? who might i be able to rely on for the rest of the season(most of the qb studs are of course taken)…love your advice and site..keep up the great werk…thx…greg
Greg,
I don’t think that I would drop Thigpen for Collins. I don’t think I would for Hill either, but that is an interesting choice. Hill has been a nice, efficient quarterback but has never been spectacular. He has never had that 300 yard 3 touchdown game. But he usually has 200 and 2. Thigpen has been pretty good and I would probably stick with him.
Rivers is not losing his value. The guy was on pace for 40 TDs, he was bound to have a couple crappy weeks, but three of his last four matchups are VERY favorable (Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver with Tampa Bay in Week 16) so I think he will be great to ride during the fantasy playoffs. Don’t get too discouraged over a couple bad games, remember he has gotten you to this point in the standings with his play all year.
Thanks for continuing to visit the site!
Ryan
hey ryan, ive got a running back and a WR dilemma.
1. who should i start, warrick dunn steve slaton or adrian peterson and
2. who should start desean jackson or marvin harrison?
thanks alot,
max
Hey Ryan,
Wr- owens, plax, roddy white, royal, harrison, donnie avery .. I have no clue this week need 4 guys.
Qb- Rivers , farvre , romo, cutler, or pennington. 2 spots
RB- REGGIE BUSh ( if hes playing??? ) do you know if he is or if he will play good? clinton portis, ronnie brown , frank gore .. im having trouble on this one
What do you think???
J-Unit
sorry i have 2 spots at rb
Max,
At RB you gotta play Peterson no matter what. The other two guys have good matchups, but I just can’t bring myself to tell you to sit Peterson.
At WR I definitely go with Harrison. I know he has not been what we thought this season, but he is going against SD who is the worst defense against the pass. Plus the Eagles offense struggled mightily last week and they get the ultra tough Ravens defense.
Thanks for the comment, how did you find the site?
Ryan
J-Unit!!!!!!!!!!
What’s up brother?
At QB I say go with Cutler and Romo.
At RB you have some tough choices. As long as Portis is going to play again he should do great against the Seahawks. As of now I haven’t seen anything that he won’t play but keep an eye out. Bush could play really well this week but I haven’t seen anything that he will DEFINITELY play but it is expected. Brown goes to play the team he had four TDs against last time. You can’t expect that again, but should be a good play. And I have a bad feeling about the Niners this week.
I would go with Portis and Brown. And if it comes out that Portis won’t play I’d go with Gore. I think I would sit Bush one more week since you have other really good options.
At WR, I would sit White and Avery. White gets a tough matchup against Carolina and is dealing with a bit of a achy back although he won’t miss time. Avery had another good game last week, but I think he is still inconsistent.
Owens gets the Niners, Harrison gets the worst pass defense in SD, Royal has the Raiders and Plax against Arizona and I think that will be a very high scoring game.
What do you think?
Ryan
Ryan.
Need some help for this week:
RB (2 spots): Michael Turner, Brian Westbrook, Darren McFadden
WR (3 spots): Roddy White, Lee Evans, Wes Welker, Donald Driver, Lance Moore.
What do you think?
Thanks.
Dean
Ryan,
Please suggest (4) RB’s to start from this list of (6):
Joseph Addai @ SD
Thomas Jones @ TEN
Warrick Dunn @ DET
Peyton Hillis vs. Oak
Chris Johnson vs. NYJ
Larry Johnson vs. BUF
Thanks in advance
Dean,
That is a tough call at RB.
Westbrook and Turner both have tough matchups against the Ravens and Panthers. McFadden appears to be healthy this week and against Denver he might not be a bad play. It is tough for me to say to sit either Westbrook or Turner though. Westbrook is clearly not healthy, and Turner only had 58 yards the last time he played Carolina. It might be a risky play to put in McFadden with the talent that you have. I’d probably go with your two stars, but McFadden certainly enters the discussion this week even though Justin Fargas appears to be the starter. In the first game against Denver McFadden had nine carries for 41 yards but that was Week 1 so can’t put too much stock in that.
At WR I would probably go with White, Driver, and Welker. The way the Buffalo offense has just been stalling makes me hesitate to play Evans and Green Bay has a great pass defense which leads me to sitting Moore.
Ryan
Chris,
I would sit Larry Johnson and Thomas Jones. I have lost faith in LJ and Buffalo is a decent defense. Thomas Jones is playing the Titans and I see this game being a low scoring affair. You’ve got some damn good running backs there, this was not an easy choice. Realistically you can make a good argument for starting any of them.
Ryan
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Ryan,
Got a huge dilemma and I need this game this week to get into the playoffs. Who to start: Thomas Jones, Chris Johnson, or Hightower. I need two and there is no one on the waiver wire. I was going to go with Jones and Johnson….the lesser of the three evils. What do you think??
FantasyFootballer,
Boy for a game that you need you catch a tough break. All three of your running backs will face a defense that ranks in the top 10 against the run in the Jets, Titans, and Giants. That being the case I would go with the two most talented and that would be Chris Johnson and Thomas Jones. Hightower has been lost the last two weeks with under 60 yards in the last two games. Gotta go with Jones and Johnson.
Thanks for the question, if you have anymore send ‘em over.
Ryan
Ryan,
I need to start 2 RB’S out of the group.
Addai
MJD
T. Jones
J. Stewart
I am leaning toward Addai and MJD.
JR.
PS What are the Giants going to do with John Carney?
JR,
I would say that is probably how I would go. Jones-Drew doesn’t have a great matchup against Minnesota, but I don’t like Jones against Tennessee. Atlanta doesn’t have a great defense to go against Johnathan Stewart, but will he get the necessary carries to make it worthwhile? That is the burning question. As I type this out I am starting to lean the other way. The Vikings are the second leading defense against the run and MJD has been wildly inconsistent. Do you think Stewart would be better against a Falcons defense that allows nearly 120 yards a game on the ground? I am starting to think so. Hopefully now that he is healthy perhaps Stewart will go back to splitting carries with DeAngelo fairly equally like they did before he got hurt.
I am leaning towards Addai and Stewart, but could be talked into MJD.
Not sure what is going to happen to Carney, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets cut as soon as Tynes has proven to be back to 100%. I doubt the Giants will keep 2 kickers on their roster.
Ryan
Hey Ryan,
I am in a ten team PPR league that also awards bonus points for the length of td’s.
I need to pick two of these RB’s to go along with LT:
Ronnie Brown vs. Pats
MJD vs. Vikings
Warrick Dunn at Lions
Reggie Bush vs. Packers
Pierre Thomas vs. Packers
I honestly don’t look for Brown to do much against an angry Pats D but they did give up 140 rushing yards at home to the Jets last week. I hate MJD’s matchup and love Dunn’s but MJD may get some receptions and a possible td if they get it close. Bush is a question mark and I do have Pierre Thomas if he doesn’t go.
I could also play Eddie Royal and just start one of the above listed RB’s. Thanks.
David,
i would definitely go with Dunn and hte second one is between Ronnie Brown and Eddie Royal. I think I would go with Brown. I know the Pats will be ready for the Wildcat this time, but the Dolphins are finding creative ways to get Brown in space and get him stats. Royal is also a good play against the Raiders. A very close call but I think I would go with the running back.
Ryan