2007 NFL Preseason Fantasy Rankings – Running Backs
1. LaDanian Tomlinson, SD. Let me start out by saying, if you expect LT to repeat his 33 touchdown season (don’t forget he threw for two as well), than you will be very disappointed with your pick. Then again, if you have the number one pick, and you don’t pick Tomlinson, you need to go to get your head examined. Tomlinson is one of the most exciting and efficient players in football. He’s still just 28, and is the catalyst in one of the best offenses in the NFL. Even when opposing defenses set their sights on him, they still can’t stop him. Is he running, will he catch out of the backfield, split out wide, or will he throw the ball? When you have options like that, how are you supposed to stop the man? Pick Tomlinson number one, don’t even think twice about it, and enjoy the 22-26 TDs that comes with him.
2. Stephen Jackson, STL. Allow me to introduce you to the man that will be causing defensive coordinators around the NFL to have nightmares for the next 10 seasons. Jackson has it all, he’s got some speed, a bunch of power, can catch with the best RBs in the league (90 catches last year), and has a nose for the end zone (ten TDs in the last four weeks). At just 24 years old, and coming off of his first season as the legitimate number one back in St. Louis, Jackson is the guy who has a lot of miles left that keeper league players want to key in on. With second year coach Scott Linehan committed to running a balanced offensive attack, Jackson looks to have the brightest future of any running back.
3. Larry Johnson, KC. Just a few years removed from his coach Dick Vermeil telling him to “take his diaper off” Johnson turned himself into one of the elite backs in the NFL, (or was it the Chiefs O-line?) and a top 2 or 3 pick in all fantasy leagues. Johnson has found the end zone 40 times in the last two seasons, second to only LaDanian Tomlinson. However, he has also carried the ball more times than any other back. It is nice to see that coach Herm Edwards believes that Johnson is the Man for his offense, but there is a point where a back can be used too much (Johnson carried an NFL record 416 times). Expect another big season out of LJ, but don’t be surprised if he is either used a bit less, or if not, ends up on the injury report.
4. Shaun Alexander, SEA. A lot of experts have begun to write off Shaun Alexander from the ranks of the top fantasy backs. It is possible that they are doing this too soon. True, Alexander will hit that number that no running back likes to see, 30 years old, this October. It is also true that Alexander’s average per carry dropped 1.5 yards last year, partly due to the fact that they lost Steve Hutchinson to Minnesota. I am ready to take Alexander out of the elite RBs available, but I still believe he is a top 5 pick that will still find the end zone quite regularly this season. It was not the kind of year that anyone in Seattle envisioned in 2006, but look for a 1,300 yard, 14-18 TD turnaround season for Alexander.
5. Rudi Johnson, CIN. Johnson is the cute girl that the jocks never want to ask out. She isn’t the hottest, she isn’t the sexiest, but the guys who do ask her out find themselves happy, and find that she gets the job done. She knows exactly how to…..wait a minute, lost my focus there for a second. The last 3 years for Johnson have been the model of consistency. He has gained between 1,309 and 1,458 yards, and has scored exactly 12 times each of the last three seasons. He has left fantasy owners who used a first round pick on him very happy. Rudi will just turn 28 during the season, and still has three to five productive years left in him. The only downside to Johnson is that he isn’t a big factor in the passing game. Although the Bengals have a bunch of offensive weapons to choose from, owners can expect similar production again this year.
Make or Break Year – Cadillac Williams, TB. After the most explosive start to a career by a rookie RB (100 yards in each of his first three games), Cadillac has looked pretty pedestrian since then. He may have hit rock bottom last year, falling short of 800 yards rushing, finding the end zone only once, while watching his yards per carry fall to a meager 3.5. Bad news for fantasy owners is that the “Touchdown Stealer” Mike Alstott is returning again to vulture the goal line carries, making Cadillac’s hopes to eclipse his 6 scores from his rookie year unlikely. Good news is that the Bucs made an effort to improve their offensive line, including signing former Giant Luke Petitgout.
Rising Star – Brandon Jacobs, NYG. With the retirement of Tiki Barber, it looks as though Brandon Jacobs will be the man in New York this year. Yeah, they went out and signed Reuben Droughns, but that’s not something that would make me lose sleep if I were Jacobs. Expect Jacobs to easily eclipse double digits in touchdowns this year, and likely run for over 1,000 yards. Droughns will get some time in the Giants backfield, but with the Giants style of offense, there are enough carries to go around. Expect Jacobs to handle the ball 20 times a game.
Falling Stock – DeShawn Foster, CAR. Foster has two big problems heading into this season. One is he can’t stay healthy Foster has never played a complete 16 game schedule in his entire career. Just when it seems he is finally going to live up to his potential, an injury pops up. His nickname should be “Q” because the guy is questionable every week. The second, and probably more significant problem is the presence of DeAngelo Williams in the backfield. I expect a big season from Williams if he is given the chance, which I believe will happen right out of preseason. Even if Foster does win the starting job, it will most likely be just a few weeks before he shows up on the injury report.
Bounce Back Year – Clinton Portis, WAS. Excuse me for not completely believing that Ladell Betts will significantly eat into Portis’ carries this year. Didn’t the Redskins just trade All-World defender Champ Bailey for him? Portis is incredibly explosive, can take any carry to the house, and does a decent job receiving out of the backfield. Betts is a nice backup and all, but at nearly 28, if he was this good, don’t you think he would be starting somewhere? You will be able to get a steal a few rounds later than you should, as Portis will probably drop a few more rounds than he should. But be sure to be the guy to snatch him up, and you should be rewarded with a 1,400 yard 8-9 TD season.
Rudi Johnson over Frank Gore? Think again Longshanks. Gore is a stud and if he stays healthy, he’ll have another monster year. Take it to the bank.