Who To Start, Who To Sit–Week 10
Tuesday is Veteran’s Day and please don’t forget to at least acknowledge the day. The men and women of our Armed Forces past and present deserve our utmost respect and admiration for their incredible sacrifice in service to our country. Can any of you really imagine doing what they do? We all think it is fun to play our video games and all that about war, but can you really imagine actually being in that situation? Because I can’t. Honestly, I would soil myself on a regular basis. They fight for our rights and our freedoms and personally I would like to say THANK YOU! You are our true heroes and this country could never thank you properly for what you do. For those who are currently serving overseas, those in combat zones or not, I pray for your safety and quick return home to us. For those who have served in the past, it is an unbelievable service that you provided and we all appreciate it very much. Lastly, on this day also remember the families of those who serve the military, as they also sacrifice much to the freedom of our country. For those of you who have close family members, perhaps husbands or wives, brothers or sisters, just imagine that all of a sudden that they are going to be away from home for a year or two and you will have little to no contact with them throughout the entire time. You have no idea where they are, or the status of their safety. So a big thanks go out to the families as well, including those with young children as that must be incredibly hard for them to understand.
Quarterbacks
Start: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals. Big Ben is having a big year, and it will end up being one of the best of his career. It has been his accuracy that has been the most impressive. While his career completion percentage has been in the low 60s, Roethlisberger is completing more than 70% of his attempts this year, and has a great complement of receivers with Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and now rookie Mike Wallace. Through eight games, Big Ben has 14 TD passes after having just 17 all of last year. The Bengals are winning games this year, but it isn’t really thanks to their pass defense. They are in the bottom third of the NFL against the pass, although they haven’t given up too many scores with just ten passing TDs on the year. The Steelers are on a roll, and Roethlisberger is hard to bring down and is great on the move even if Cincinnati is able to pressure him but the loss of Antwan Odom certainly hurts their pass rush. The Bengals did a great job on Joe Flacco last week, but Roethlisberger is a savvy veteran and I can see him having a big game and Pittsburgh continuing to roll. (thanks WR!)
Start: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco’s pass defense has been very inconsistent this year. They held Peyton Manning without a touchdown pass, but has also given up big games to Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, and Matt Schaub. Cutler did have a good second half against the Cardinals last week, and the momentum should continue this Thursday in San Francisco. Cutler has been under a lot of scrutiny in his first season in Chicago, but honestly his statistics haven’t been very bad. He has thrown two or more touchdown passes in five of the team’s first eight games, and has thrown for over 250 yards in four games. I can definitely see him reaching or surpassing both of those numbers this week, and is a solid play in Week 10.
Sit: Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos at Washington Redskins. It is finally starting to unravel for the Broncos as their amazing start has now turned into a two game losing streak in which Orton has failed to throw a touchdown pass. This is starting to be reminiscent of his last season in Chicago when he got off to a good start, but then had just eight touchdown passes in the last eight games. Orton gets a bit of a pass for his struggles since he has faced two solid defenses, but the road continues to stay tough as the Redskins are the number one defense against the pass as far as yardage is concerned. They haven’t forced too many interceptions, but they are among the league leaders in sacking the quarterback, and should force Orton into a few mistakes. The second half could be rough for Orton, as the schedule isn’t very favorable and this week is no exception.
Sit: Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears. It was a blast from the past in Week 9, but that isn’t a good thing as Smith looked like the same guy he had been his entire pro career. Smith did throw for nearly 300 yards, but he did turn the ball over four times, and on several occasions just made some really bad decisions. It also seems that he is unable to not just completely stare down his intended receiver, and at times it appears that Vernon Davis is the only guy out on the field. If he struggled against the worst pass defense in the NFL in the Titans, what is he going to do against a much better team? OK, so the Bears pass defense has been pretty awful too, but Smith is just not a capable NFL quarterback in my opinion. I would have a hard time starting him against any matchup.
Running Backs
Start: Justin Fargas, Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders running back situation has been a mess for much of the season, but it now appears that Fargas has taken over the main role at least until Darren McFadden comes back. At 6′1″ and 220 pounds, Fargas is a strong runner who doesn’t shy away from contact. Fargas did a pretty good job last year when given the opportunity, and he also ran strong last week with 59 yards on 17 carries and a touchdown. If he is going to be successful, this is going to be the week, as the Chiefs are fifth worst in the NFL against the run, allowing over 135 yards per game on the ground. I don’t think Fargas will get quite to that number, but I could see him having a similar game to the one he had last week, or perhaps even a little bit better.
Start: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders. Larry Johnson has officially been cut, which is great news for everyone in Kansas City. Charles was the hot pickup of the week, but he really let those down who picked him up. Against the Jaguars, Charles had just 36 yards, although it came on just six carries as his team fell behind and needed to pass to get back in the game. He will share carries with Kolby Smith, but especially in PPR leagues, Charles should be the running back who carries more value. Now as many people who jumped on his bandwagon likely also jumped off after his one bad game, but I don’t think that you should do that quite yet. The Raiders are even worse against the run than the Chiefs are as they allow over 160 yards per game on the ground to go with 13 rushing touchdowns in just eight games. I urge you to give him one more chance against the Raiders, and if Charles sucks this week, then I would go jumping off the bandwagon as fast as possible.
Sit: Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts. Maroney has been on a roll as of late, and has actually scored a touchdown in three straight games. He has also been averaging over four yards a carry since he has been named the starting running back for the Patriots, and is finally living up to the first round draft pick status. However, this week he will go against the Colts who are allowing just over 100 yards a game on the ground, but they also have given up six rushing touchdowns in eight games. This is a game that features two of the best quarterbacks in the game and will be won through the air. It is possible that Maroney will get a junk touchdown somewhere if Randy Moss or another Pats’ receiver is tackled around the goal line, but I don’t anticipate him putting up a lot of yards or catching too many passes. Now that only two teams are on bye, you likely have a better option on your bench somewhere.
Sit: Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals. Jones hasn’t had a good game on the ground since Week 3, but he was able to finally find the end zone for the first time since the season opener. Over the past six week, Jones has really struggled though, and hasn’t even averaged three yards a carry. Many of his owners might have gotten some faith back in him after he scored and also had 78 receiving yards. However, this is going to be another rough one for Julius, as the Cardinals are not only likely to run up the score on the Seahawks, but Arizona’s run defense is the fourth best in the NFL, allowing just 93 yards a game on the ground and only four rushing touchdowns. If Jones is able to break 50 yards he should consider it a good game, and if he is able to actually score a touchdown that would be even better. Try to find someone better on your roster to put in his place.
Wide Receivers
Start: Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions. After a subpar week and then the team’s bye, Rice will be back on the field in Week 10, and he should be back with a vengeance. He is clearly the number one target in the passing game, and he gets one of his two matchups against the lowly Detroit Lions. The last time they faced each other, Rice had just three catches for 29 yards, but things were very different back then. Rice has since proven what he can do and his numbers have shot up in response. We all know the Lions are bad, but they average allowing over 260 yards per game through the air and they have given up the second most passing touchdowns with 19. I think it is one of the safer bets this week that Sidney Rice is going to have a big game. I would be very surprised if he didn’t get over 100 yards receiving on Sunday and should definitely be in your lineup somehow, somewhere.
Start: Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. After missing most of three games due to a hamstring injury, Cotchery was back in Week 8 and picked up pretty much where he left off. The Jets’ number two receiver had just three catches, but they were good for 70 yards in a matchup with the Dolphins. Now he has had a bye week to recover even more from his injury and should be back to full strength, or as close to it as is possible in an NFL season. Even in a year where the quarterback play has been very inconsistent for the Jets, Cotchery has been a stabilizing guy as he has had at least 70 receiving yards in every game that he has played (except the one he got hurt in). Jacksonville’s pass defense is in the bottom third of the NFL, giving up over 240 yards per game through the air and they have allowed 15 TD passes. Cotchery looks like a strong play for your team in the upcoming week, you can count on him to continue his solid season with another good game.
Sit: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders. The Chiefs offense is bad, not nightmare bad, but pretty close. They have now cut ties with their only veteran running back (which is honestly probably a good thing), and they will likely depend on the passing game even more. So why is Dwayne Bowe not a good start against the lowly Raiders? Well, it may come as some surprise, but the Raiders are among the top half of the league against the pass, and their top cornerback, Nnamdi Asomugha has shown that he is capable of taking a team’s top receiver almost completely out of the game. So, take a subpar offense that is very inconsistent, throw in a pretty decent pass defense with an All-Pro at cornerback, and that equals enough doubt and question in my mind to take a look at my roster to try to find another player to start this week besides Bowe.
Sit: Santana Moss, Washington Redskins vs. Denver Broncos. Moss is a talented guy, but is a victim of an offense that is scarier than Sammy Sosa’s new “skin condition.” You just can’t count on Washington to have any sort of consistency on the offensive side of the ball, which is obvious when you consider they have yet to score more than 17 points in a game. They are playing the quarterback carousel between Jason Campbell and Todd Collins, and no matter where it stops, there isn’t a good option. Considering this, it is tough to blame Moss too much for a season where he is averaging about four catches a game for just about 60 yards. The scarier part is that about one-third of his statistics came in one game when he had 10 catches for 178 yards against Detroit. Since then he has failed to top even 50 yards in three of the five games. Denver hasn’t been playing well of late, but for the season they are giving up just over 180 yards through the air and less than one passing touchdown per contest. I think it is safe to assume that their defense will at least do that well, if not better, and to count on Moss for any big time production is probably asking for too much.
Tight End
Start: John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals. Carlson’s stats have suffered since the first couple of games as the Seahawks have been using him a lot more in pass blocking and not nearly as much in pass receiving. He is a talented receiver, though, and if Seattle starts to use him as a receiver again (which they need t0), Carlson could again be one of the top ten tight ends in fantasy. He certainly has a favorable matchup this week, as the Cardinals just came off a week where they allowed three touchdown passes to the Bears’ Greg Olsen. It would obviously be far fetched to expect Arizona to allow another such performance, but Carlson is way overdue for a good game, and this looks like his best opportunity in a long time.
Sit: Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles at San Diego Chargers. Celek has scored in two straight games, and has become the first tight end to be a valuable part of the Eagles offense in quite a while. He has been a consistent performer, as he has had at least three catches in every game this year. However, he obviously isn’t going to score every week and it certainly seems that this has a good chance to be the week that the streak ends. San Diego is the fifth best defense against the pass allowing less than 180 yards per game. They did give up a touchdown to the Giants’ TE Kevin Boss, but they did hold him to just two catches for 17 yards. Celek is turning into a good, reliable option at the tight end position, but I think that this might be a week that you don’t want him in your lineup.
I welcome your comments and questions at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I can help you with roster questions, who to start/sit, etc. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the Fantasy Football Tonight podcast every Tuesday night at 10pm EST with myself and Jeff Mans. We will cover all the latest and greatest in fantasy football, and there is always some crazy things being discussed outside the world of football as well. Please join us, to listen go to www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-football-tonight . If that isn’t enough of Jeff and I for you, you can also now join us on the Fantasy Sports Channel on Blog Talk Radio for the Midnight Oil show. We will give you another hour leading into the weekend starting on Friday at midnight EST. Go to www.fsc.fm to listen.
