Five Game Parlay–Week 11
I only have one word for Week 10…..UGH! Three of us combined for one win, and only Jeff Mans was able to break the .500 barrier. Mr. Mans has also officially dug himself out of a huge early hole and has actually taken over the lead! That’s not a typo. The guy who looked like he was going to make a permanent home out of the basement has moved on up. To the East Side. To a deluxe apartment in the sky! We finally got a piece of the pie! Fish don’t fry in the kitchen, beans don’t burn on the grill…..sorry about that. The best news of the week for Jeff, however, was that the Ravens went on a little mini scoring binge and were able to cover the spread, thus saving Jeff from having to eat a dog biscuit. DAMN!!! Oh well, I’ll try to pressure him back in to putting it on the line again you can be rest assured of that.
Home Field Favorite Ryan was one of the group that failed to win a game and he has now fallen into second place after leading the entire season. A horrible week in which the majority of the picks were never even close. Bruno Boy Marc Caviglia finally broke out of his usual 3-2 record in Week 9 with a 4-1 mark. So how did he follow up his best week of the year? Of course, with his worst week of the year. Marc was 1-4 but Mr. Consistency is still right in the thick of things. Sara Holladay of the Fantasy Football Librarian…..well, let’s just say she is due. Due for a great week. Overdue some might even say. But in her defense, the Lions failed to cover by 1/2 a point, and who would have thought the Saints wouldn’t cover against the Rams. She did tell me if I wanted a bounceback week that I should just pick the opposite of what she did this week. I have to say I thought about it for a second, but just couldn’t bring myself to do that. Just kidding Sara, I’m sure you will make this an interesting race when it is all said and done.
Heading into Week 11, here are the current standings:
Jeff: 19-16 (3-2 last week)
Ryan: 18-17 (0-5)
Marc: 17-18 (1-4)
Sara: 10-23-2 (0-5)
So, a change finally comes at the top, let’s see if Ryan and Marc can bounce back and take back what they have been fighting for all year long, or will Jeff widen his lead as he is the only one who seems to be picking with his brain lately. And Sara is going to shoot right back up the board with a 4-1 week this week. Enjoy the picks everyone, and if you would like to play along with us, feel free to leave five picks below in the comment section and we will see how you fare up against the Fantastic Four. Or is it the Fairly Decent Four? Of the Futile Four? You decide. Until next week, here’s what we say is going to happen………
Sara Holladay of the Fantasy Football Librarian (www.fflibrarian.com)
Denver Broncos (-3) vs. San Diego Chargers – Dare I take the Broncos here? I’ll be honest, my gut is nervous and lacking my normal confidence with this matchup against the Chargers. However, it’s a home game with a team (and fans) that are reeling after losing to the Skins last week. Plus, it’s the Chargers and the Broncos always love beating the Chargers. And Rivers. Man, I don’t like Rivers. No Broncos fan likes Rivers. So we’ll win by a nice solid TD.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Chicago Bears – Well Chicago is a mess these days. No way they lose by only a FG. I see the Eagles bringing their ‘A’ game and possibly winning by double digits here.
St. Louis Rams (+9) vs. Arizona Cardinals – I know, it feels weird to even think that the Rams could cover…but that’s the way I see it, my friends. That said I’ve been doing a horrible job at this lately but I believe the Rams will keep this closer than expected. I certainly have no hope that the Rams will win this one, but I think the way they played against the Saints might be slightly more than just good luck. Forsett showed us last week that it’s not that hard to run against the Cardinals, and SJax will take that and run with it…and might just get a TD. Maybe. We can all cross our fingers.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-9) vs. Buffalo Bills – I’m sorry but Buffalo has no hope this week. With so many changes going on in their organization this week, I think they will struggle to get anything going whatsoever, despite the Jags’ lax defense. MJD will just run all over this matchup. It will be a thing of beauty to watch him move and stack up TD after TD. I say Jags win big.
San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers – Both the Niners and Packers have a lot to play for this week and want to show that they’re worthy contenders. My take is that the Pack will come out with the W but that the game will come down to the wire, maybe just a Mason Crosby FG to seal the deal.
Jeff Mans of Fantasy Football Search (www.fantasyfootballsearch.com)
Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. Cleveland Browns – This is the biggest piece of crap game possibly all season. But, Detroit is at least putting up a fight and being competitive in games. The Browns all hate their coach and although Brady Quinn is a bit of an upgrade at QB, it just doesn’t matter. I think Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson finally get on the same page this week and put some serious points on the board.
Arizona Cardinals (-9) at St. Louis Rams – I am feeling quite aggressive this week in my parlay picks and so I am taking a shot on a big favorite on the road, something I rarely do. Although St. Louis played very well last week against the undefeated Saints, I think it was their best overall game of the season. Kurt Warner will be inspired to move the offense and put up some serious points in his return to his former home in St. Louis. Marc Bulger will once again be a turnover machine and the Cardinals won’t take the foot off the accelerator until they have comfortably covered even this lofty spread.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Chicago Bears – It is sort of amazing that the Eagles are FAVORED on the road against the Bears despite Brian Westbrook and Sheldon Brown not playing. This tells you how truly awful the Bears secondary is right now. The Eagles will probably use a heavy passing game once again and this time find much more success than they did last week against San Diego.
San Diego Chargers (+3) at Denver Broncos – I honestly do not mean to be betting against the Broncos so much but it appears oddsmakers are greatly overestimating their fast start to this season. I was not fooled and have been rewarded with some very easy wins the past few weeks thanks to the Broncos decline (Sorry Sara!). The Chargers getting three points this week seems like highway robbery especially considering that Kyle Orton may not even play and if he does will be extremely limited. San Diego should win this game and easily making this pick a no brainer.
Baltimore Ravens (+1) vs. Indianapolis Colts - UPSET ALERT! The Ravens knock off the undefeated Colts this week in a spirited game in Baltimore. Looking at the matchups for these two teams I think that the Ravens will give the Colts fits on both offense and defense. Although nothing really fazes Peyton Manning, the Ravens defense, when inspired can play as good as any unit in the league. The Ravens will revert to a more open offense as well this week while making sure to control the clock via the run game. It will be close, but in the end I think Indy takes its first loss of the season.
Marc Caviglia of Bruno Boys Fantasy Football (www.brunoboys.net)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Kansas City Chiefs – The Pittsburgh Steelers might have scored just 12 points in Week 10 but that was a tough Cincinnati Bengals defense and things should be different this week. Their Week 11 opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, allow 23.9 points per game and over 375 yards of total offense so the Steelers should have no problem moving the football and putting points on the board. As for the Chiefs offense, they don’t have enough firepower to compete with a Steelers defense that ranks 2nd best in the NFL in yards allowed.
Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) at Oakland Raiders – With or without Cedric Benson this game should be over by halftime. The Bengals are fresh off a road victory against a tough Pittsburgh Steelers team and should travel to Oakland and take care of business. Many call this a trap game, much like earlier in the season when the Philadelphia Eagles traveled to the black hole and got beat, but I’m not buying it. The Raiders did the smart thing and benched quarterback JaMarcus Russell, but they replaced him with Bruce Gradkowski, who has a 9 TD to 15 INT ratio in 22 career games.
San Diego Chargers (+3) at Denver Broncos – After missing his third straight practice it looks like Denver Broncos signal caller Kyle Orton will miss this game and that’s not a good sign for a struggling offense. His replacement, Chris Simms, was just 3 of 13 in the second half of last weeks loss and the Chargers passing defense should have no problem getting back on track in Week 11. Expect Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson and LaDainian Tomlinson to be too much for a Broncos defense that has allowed 85 points over their last three games.
Indianapolis (-1) at Baltimore Ravens – I don’t care how dominating the Baltimore Ravens defense looked in Monday Night they did so against a Cleveland Browns team that averages 8.7 points per game. Look for Peyton Manning to pick apart a Ravens defense that has recorded just 21 sacks and nine interceptions on the season.
Seattle Seahawks (+10.5) at Minnesota Vikings – If you see the trend here I am going with the road warriors this week. In my first four games I have the road team covering the spread so why not make it five for five. There is no doubt in my mind that the Minnesota Vikings win this game but don’t count the Seattle Seahawks offense out. The Vikings are allowing over 20 points per contest and Seattle has scored 69 points over the last three games so even if the Vikings score at will look for Matt Hasselbeck & Co. to score enough to keep this game within 10 points.
Ryan Hallam of Fighting Chance Fantasy (www.fightingchancefantasy.com)
New York Jets (+10.5) at New England Patriots - I think the Patriots are going to win this game, but the last four meetings between the Jets and Pats have been within 10 points, and New York has won the last two matchups. New York is DESPERATE for a win that I don’t think they get, but they should at least keep it close enough to cover the spread.
San Diego Chargers (+3) at Denver Broncos – Denver is in a bit of a free fall with three straight loses, none of which were very close. They have a HUGE home game against the team closest to them in the standings, and given the fact that these two teams are going in opposite directions I like San Diego to not only cover, but win the game as well.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Chicago Bears - Bears have had two straight ugly games and I just can’t see them beating a quality team like Philadelphia even though they have also lost two straight. Donovan McNabb should be able to feast on the Bears’ secondary and you can expect big games from both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. I am a little worried about a ‘dog at home like Chicago who needs a win, but I have too much faith in Philly.
Houston Texans (-4.5) vs. Tennessee Titans – I’m still just not buying into the “resurgence” in Tennessee and I think the Texans will have too much offense for Tennessee to be able to match. Matt Schaub and Houston have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and IF they can keep Chris Johnson away from another 200 yard game they should be able to win this one.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Kansas City Chiefs - I just keep picking the Steelers, and while they burned me this past week, they should be able to maul the lowly Chiefs who will be without their best offensive player in Dwayne Bowe. Even at home, I feel pretty confident in this pick that between Roethlisberger throwing and Mendenhall running, Pittsburgh should be able to put up at least 30 points, and does anyone think KC will score 20 on that defense?
So, there you have it folks, the big picks for Week 11. As you can tell from our records, I probably wouldn’t go to Vegas with these, but we are having fun with it. As promised, here is the 411 on each person picking the games.
Sara Holladay is the Fantasy Football Librarian (www.fflibrarian.com), a wildly popular site on the web that brings a lot of the best information out there and makes her site a one stop shop for the fantasy player. Sara combs her favorite sites and gives you links to what she finds to be top notch work and puts it in one post for you. She also does a weekly column in the New York Times Fifth Down blog. She has brought good traffic to my site when my articles show up there, and she has also been a guest on the Fantasy Football Tonight podcast with Jeff and myself. She knows her stuff backwards and forwards (even if she is a Broncos fan) and has made quite a name for herself around the internet.
Marc Caviglia is one of the founders of the Bruno Boys Fantasy Football site (www.brunoboys.net), one of the most complete and respected football sites on the ‘net. I was able to hook up with Marc and the Boys last season and they were kind enough to let me write a weekly column on their site. It has been a great experience working with Marc, and he is a very knowledgeable guy about football, both from the game angle and the fantasy side. The Bruno Boys has grown into an internet powerhouse when it comes to fantasy football, and their next stop is world domination. Plus it doesn’t hurt that the guy is a Niners fan like me. And being out in California, he often is able to give me the local perspective on my team when I am 3,000 miles away.
Finally, Jeff Mans from Fantasy Football Search (www.fantasyfootballsearch.com). Jeff is definitely one of the most plugged in guys that I have met since doing this fantasy project, and I have an incredible respect for his work. No one knows more about the lower levels of team’s depth charts than Jeff. He is always able to find the next guy well before they get on the field which is how he got the name The Fantasy Scout. We do two podcasts together on Tuesday night at 10 pm EST (www.blogtalkradio.com/midnight-oil) and Friday at midnight EST (www.fsc.fm) on the Fantasy Sports Channel. His passion for the game is tough to match and he was kicking my ass at this before I got the bright idea to start over. He is the heavy favorite in this competition, even though he has an unnatural love for Peter Gabriel (is that enough of a jinx?).
You can always email me at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com for any fantasy question. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the Fantasy Football Tonight podcast every Tuesday night at 10pm EST with myself and Jeff Mans. We will cover all the latest and greatest in fantasy football, and there is always some crazy things being discussed outside the world of football as well. Please join us, to listen go to www.blogtalkradio.com/midnight-oil. If that isn’t enough of Jeff and I for you, you can also now join us on the Fantasy Sports Channel on Blog Talk Radio for the Midnight Oil show. We will give you another hour leading into the weekend starting on Friday at midnight EST. Go to www.fsc.fm to listen.
