Who To Start, Who To Sit–Week 12
Today is Thanksgiving, and it is time to think about the good things that you have in your life. I have so much to be thankful for right now. I have a great wife and kids, parents, brother, and in laws. I now have a job that I enjoy going to every day and of course this site. It has continued to grow each and every season, and I am very thankful for all of you. Yeah, that’s right YOU! All of you who take time out of your busy schedule to read the site, listen to the podcasts, or email me, I just want you to know that I appreciate it very much and hope that we continue to entertain as well as give you the information you need to make the best decisions on your roster on a weekly basis. And now, on to the games………
If you have specific questions about your lineup situation, feel free to email me at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com and I guarantee a response in 18 hours.
Quarterbacks
Start: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Ryan had struggled for the better part of a month before he finally had another good game last week against the Giants with 268 passing yards and two touchdowns. Nothing will help your momentum along like a visit from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (well, maybe a visit from the Lions, but anyway). The Bucs have allowed 22 passing touchdowns, which is the third most in the entire league, and Ryan should be able to help them keep that ranking. Between Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, and whichever running back is starting, Ryan has enough weapons to get the job done and should be a solid play this weekend.
Start: Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers. This one is a little more of a gut call than actually analysis dealing with statistics. Cassel has been very inconsistent this season, and figuring when he is going to be successful has been difficult. He does have four games in which he has thrown two touchdown passes, but he also has three games in which he has none. The Chargers defense is ranked number eleven against the pass, and has only given up 13 scores through the air in 11 games. I just think that the Chiefs will be forced to throw the ball, and with the emergence of Jamaal Charles as a pass catching running back and the resurgence of Chris Chambers, Cassel has a couple of options even without Dwayne Bowe on the field. This is more of a pick if you are in a bind for a QB play in Week 12.
Sit: Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins. I just have never been a huge fan of Donovan McNabb, as people generally draft him as a starter for their fantasy team and he usually finishes with either high teens or low twenties in TD passes each year. He will have a few really good games, but most weeks he is either average or slightly above. This week he will face a tough divisional opponent who just happens to give up the fewest yards on defense against the pass. Washington has only allowed ten touchdown passes against them through ten games and I would be surprised to see McNabb throw more than a single touchdown pass this week. See if your alternate quarterback has a better matchup.
Sit: David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers. Garrard to me is one of the most overrated players in all of fantasy. He is on a number of sleepers every single year, and then he finishes averaging about one touchdown pass per game. This year he only has eight TD passes through the first ten games. Now this week Jacksonville travels to San Francisco whose pass defense really subscribes to the “bend but don’t break” philosophy as they are in the bottom three in yards allowed through the air, but have given up just 11 TD passes which is easily in the top third of the league. The Jags will likely win, but it will have to be behind Maurice Jones-Drew and not the arm of David Garrard.
Running Backs
Start: Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys vs. Oakland Raiders. Last week was the first time all season that Barber had 20 carries in a game, and it was the also the first time since the second week of the year that he even approached 100 yards rushing. He has been a tough guy to start all season long, but if there was going to be a week to put him in with extreme confidence, it would be now against the Raiders. They are the third worst against the run, giving up nearly 160 yards a game on the ground and an NFL worst 16 touchdowns. The Cowboys should roll over the Raiders on Thanksgiving Day, and Barber should be a big part of it.
Start: Beanie Wells, Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans. Beanie continues to get better and better each week, and he is getting very close to a guy that I would start every single week. He has now rushed for over 70 yards in three straight weeks, and has three touchdowns in the past two games. The Titans defense is improving and has gotten them back to respectability, but they will be unable to stop Wells this week. Tennessee gives up just around 100 yards per game on the ground, with just eight TDs through the first ten games. They have been keeping running backs in check, although they aren’t really shutting guys down and Wells should be able to get his yards. He will certainly share carries with Tim Hightower, but he is productive enough in the rushes that he gets that makes him worth starting.
Sit: Steve Slaton, Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts. Slaton was back as the starting running back last week, and he did decent and scored a touchdown. He is now dealing with a neck/shoulder injury, but Slaton appears that he will be able to play. However, Chris Brown started to get more carries, and it seems that he might in line for more in the near future. Put that together with the fact that the Colts have only given up seven rushing touchdowns this season, and I don’t think that you would want Slaton in your lineup.
Sit: Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints. Maroney’s scoring streak is up to five straight weeks after a two TD performance against the Jets last Sunday. His yards per carry haven’t been very impressive, nor has his rushing yards, but fantasy football is ruled by touchdowns and Maroney has been racking them up. The Saints haven’t been an incredibly stingy rush defense, allowing 12 rushing scores, but this game has all the signs of being a passfest and I would be surprised to see Maroney to get more than 15 carries. If you need to start Maroney this week, it might not be the end of the world, but he is going to stop scoring touchdowns every single week and this looks to me like the week that it will happen.
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Wide Receivers
Start: Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. Crabtree continues to impress and had his first NFL touchdown last week. He had four catches for 77 yards against the Packers. There is no reason to think that Crabtree won’t continue to produce against a Jacksonville defense that has given up 17 touchdowns through the air, and even the erratic Alex Smith should be able to do some damage and it will either be Vernon Davis or Crabtree that will be the beneficiary. Crabtree is a very good option as your WR3 this week and should likely be in your starting lineup each week.
Start: Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets vs. Carolina Panthers. It is tough to start any Jets receiver right now considering how horrible Mark Sanchez has been playing at quarterback, but Cotchery still seems to be finding a way to get his numbers. In the last three games, he has averaged over 70 yards per game and he has a touchdown in two straight weeks. Carolina is a really tough defense, but I still have faith that Cotchery will get five catches or more and keep his yardage around where it has been recently.
Sit: Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens. Holmes has had at least 85 yards in three straight games, but he still only has one touchdown through the first ten games of the season. Hines Ward is having another fantastic season, and Mike Wallace is emerging as a good option for Ben Roethlisberger to throw to. And for all the flack that the Ravens are getting for not being the defense they used to be, they are still only allowing one passing touchdown per game. He could be decent as a flex play or your last receiver in your lineup, but I would try to see if one of your other receivers might have a better matchup this week.
Sit: Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys vs. Oakland Raiders. The Cowboys passing game has been very sketchy lately, and all of their receivers are very tough to put in your lineup right now none as much as Roy Williams. He has been better of late, but Williams has had too many games for me where he just completely disappeared. He has four games in which he had at least 75 yards receiving, but he also has three where he failed to top 20 yards. And as bad as the Raiders have been, they are actually one of the better pass defenses in the league as they have allowed the second fewest passing touchdowns in the league with just eight. Unless you are in a real tough situation, I would definitely try to find a better guy in your starting lineup than Roy.
Tight End
Start: Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions. Finley returned from injury last week and he looked like he picked up right where he left off. Finley had a couple of tough catches and also showed off his athleticism running with the ball. He has had at least five catches in three of the last four games that he has played. Finley is an impressive looking young player who appears to be in the mold of this “next generation” of tight ends who are impressive pass catchers. The matchup with the Lions is always an enticing one and if Finley is on your roster I would have him starting on Thanksgiving.
Sit: Dustin Keller, New York Jets vs. Carolina Panthers. Keller hasn’t had nearly the season that was expected when the season started, even though he has been doing better of late with 17 catches over the past three weeks. However, this week they play Carolina who gives up only 185 yards a game through the air and only 12 touchdowns as well. I do really like Keller, but I would have to think that you have a better option on your roster. Mark Sanchez has proven to be so erratic right now and that makes it tough to start a guy who isn’t getting enough looks to make it worthwhile.
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