Five Game Parlay–Week 12
Although it was better than Week 10, last Sunday was still no picnic for our players. However, on a positive note Sara Holladay of the Fantasy Football Librarian the best record of the week with a much needed 3-2. Sara has been struggling over the last month, but this is definitely the first step towards working her way back into this contest. I’m glad I didn’t take her advice and just go with the opposite of what she picked as she suggested. The three boys all fell just short at 2-3 so there wasn’t much change in the standings this week. So, two games still separate the top three as we approach Thanksgiving week. This is definitely going down to the wire.
Heading into Week 12, here are the current standings:
Jeff: 21-19 (2-3 last week)
Ryan: 20-20 (2-3)
Marc: 19-21 (2-3)
Sara: 13-25-2 (3-2)
After filling our bellies with turkey and all the fixins, we take a look at a limited schedule without a lot of options as well, so options to pick the five games weren’t as many as previous weeks. However, I am expecting big things from all of us as we try to figure out this NFL season. As I offered last week, if you would like to participate even on a one week basis, feel free to leave five picks in the comments. And of course if you are new to the Parlay there is a small profile on each of our competitors.
Jeff Mans of Fantasy Football Search (www.fantasyfootballsearch.com)
Arizona Cardinals (+3) at Tennessee Titans – Seriously? The Cardinals are getting three at Tennessee? I understand that Tennessee is a lot better than they played through the first six games this season but come on. I do expect this game to be competitive but giving points to a high flying offense like Arizona against a weaker defense in Tennessee especially with the Titans run first offensive approach is just ridiculous. I hope Chris Johnson runs for 200+ yards and two TD’s but he’ll most likely be hurt or have a big letdown this week. Take Arizona and bet the farm on it!
Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) vs. Chicago Bears – The Bears secondary is awful and the Vikings just have too many ways to beat them it isn’t even funny. I am expecting a good game however out of Jay Cutler this week, but it won’t be enough to keep the Bears close in this contest as the Vikings win it by two touchdowns or more.
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at St. Louis Rams – The Rams have been playing better football as of late but with Steven Jackson questionable and Marc Bulger already out it is an uphill climb this week to say the least. Seattle will coast behind a strong day from Matt Hasselbeck will dominate the game and win is easily.
New England Patriots (+1.5) at New Orleans Saints – If you give me points with New England I will almost always take it. The Saints are bound to be stopped sooner or later and Bill Belicheck is just the defensive mind to figure out how. It’s going to be a good game to watch but in the end the Patriots will come out victorious.
Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) at San Diego Chargers – The Chargers should and very likely will destroy the Chiefs in San Diego this week. Having said that, I think this game will be far more competitive than people think. There is something going on in Kansas City lately and the offense is starting to find a rhythm. This is a classic game where San Diego starts looking too far ahead and winds up getting smacked around themselves.
Sara Holladay of the Fantasy Football Librarian (www.fflibrarian.com)
Buffalo Bills (+3) vs. Miami Dolphins – I almost can’t believe I’m taking Buffalo here but I think their efforts against the Jags last week (and a newfound Fitzpatrick-Owens connection?) proved they might be able to make it a surprisingly close game against the Dolphins, who barely pulled out wins against the Bucs and Panthers over the past few weeks. I’m guessing the Dolphins will still win but it’ll be a squeaker.
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) vs. New England Patriots – This will be a phenomenal game and we’ll all be applauding the Pats’ great effort when it’s all said and done, but I just don’t think the Pats have a defense that can handle the Saints right now. It will be a close one, but I think the Saints will still cover.
Carolina Panthers (+3) at New York Jets – These two teams are actually surprisingly similar but I think the Panthers have the edge here – last week the Panthers put up a good effort against the Dolphins while Sanchez instead chucked up interception after interception against the Pats. I don’t think the Jets are in a good place right now, I think they’ll struggle to contain Steve Smith who has been in sync with Delhomme lately, and the Panthers have more fight in them - Carolina wins.
Minnesota Vikings (+10.5) vs. Chicago Bears – Now that the Bears are realizing what happens when Cutler is under pressure (hello, league-leading INTs), you’d think they’d put the ball in Forte’s hands a bit more. But against Minnesota that just isn’t going to be a winning formula. In fact, there is no winning formula. I say the Vikings win big against a weak Chicago secondary. Hell, a weak Bears defense all around.
San Francisco 49ers (+3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jags are really awful. It’s unclear how they have a winning record (I’m sure MJD and MSW have a little something to do with it – perhaps they need to draft more players with hyphenated names) but they’ll lose to the Niners in a not-so-close game since the Jags have basically no defense whatsoever. Gore should have a nice outing, much to the delight of fantasy owners everywhere.
Marc Caviglia of Bruno Boys Fantasy Football (www.brunoboys.net)
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Houston Texans – When these two teams met in Indianapolis the Colts were almost a double-digit favorite but with this game in Houston the line is just a field goal. Expect this one to be close but for Peyton Manning to get back on track and put together multiple touchdown passes as the Colts move to 11-0.
San Francisco 49ers (-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jaguars are arguably the worst 6-4 team in football and the 49ers are better than their 4-6 record shows. At home, expect the 49ers to ride the legs of Frank Gore and hands of Michael Crabtree to a much needed victory over Jacksonville.
Pittsburgh Steelers (NL) at Baltimore Ravens - With Big Ben suffering from a concussion the experts haven’t made a line on this divisional match-up but he is expected to be under center on Sunday. Mike Tomlin dumped the Ravens in three match-up last season and should have no problem snapping a two game losing streak on the road in a Pick ‘Em.
New England Patriots (+1) at New Orleans Saints - The undefeated streak comes to an end on Monday Night Football for the Saints. This is arguably the biggest game over the past decade for New Orleans and Sean Payton has never coached in a game of this magnitude. Expect the Patriots mastermind Bill Belichick to create a gameplan that leads the Patriots to the victory on the national stage.
Miami Dolphins (-3) at Buffalo Bills – My lock of the week hasn’t been coming in at the rate I’d like but this game looks like a lock in my mind. The only reason keeping this from a seven or eight point spread is the fact that the game will be played in Buffalo. Still, a resurrected Ricky Williams should have no problem running wild on a Buffalo defense that has allowed 15 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Ryan Hallam of Fighting Chance Fantasy Sports (www.fightingchancefantasy.com)
Arizona Cardinals (+3) at Tennessee Titans – The Cardinals to me are on just a better level of football to me than the Titans, even though they have won four straight games. Arizona’s offense is firing on all cylinders lately and I don’t think that the Titans can score enough to keep up with them, not to mention give points. This is the easiest game of the week to me and should be a no brainer.
San Diego Chargers (-13.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs – This is a lot of points to give but the Chargers are just a much better team than the Chiefs regardless of the fact that Kansas City just knocked off Pittsburgh. I’m not sure how Kansas City can cover everyone that San Diego will put into pass routes, not to mention LaDainian Tomlinson who has feasted on bad defenses this year. Look for the Chargers to roll in this one and cover the spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers (PK) at Baltimore Ravens – Like Sara continues to pick the Broncos, I just keep picking the Steelers even though I am not a fan. I just think that they are a quality football team that knows how to win games on the road and they are going to be PISSED after losing that game to the Chiefs last week. Baltimore is a quality team, but the Steelers are better and should come away with the victory.
New England Patriots (+2) at New Orleans Saints – The Saints have to lose a game sooner or later, and it seems reasonable that New England could be the team to take them down. New England should come with their ‘A’ game on Monday Night Football, and I just always like to pick the Pats when I am getting points. Brady and Company have been in the primetime stage a million times before and shouldn’t be phased by it. We’ll see if the undefeated Saints don’t start to feel the pressure of being 10-0.
Miami Dolphins (-3) at Buffalo Bills – I am having a bit of a hard time picking the Dolphins and giving points with them. They are a solid team, but far from a great team and I don’t like to give points on the road to average teams. However, I really just have absolutely no confidence in the Bills and I do like Ricky Williams a lot so although this isn’t with supreme confidence, look for the Dolphins to get a much needed win.
So, there you have it folks, the big picks for Week 12. As you can tell from our records, I probably wouldn’t go to Vegas with these, but we are having fun with it. As promised, here is the 411 on each person picking the games.
Sara Holladay is the Fantasy Football Librarian (www.fflibrarian.com), a wildly popular site on the web that brings a lot of the best information out there and makes her site a one stop shop for the fantasy player. Sara combs her favorite sites and gives you links to what she finds to be top notch work and puts it in one post for you. She also does a weekly column in the New York Times Fifth Down blog. She has brought good traffic to my site when my articles show up there, and she has also been a guest on the Fantasy Football Tonight podcast with Jeff and myself. She knows her stuff backwards and forwards (even if she is a Broncos fan) and has made quite a name for herself around the internet.
Marc Caviglia is one of the founders of the Bruno Boys Fantasy Football site (www.brunoboys.net), one of the most complete and respected football sites on the ‘net. I was able to hook up with Marc and the Boys last season and they were kind enough to let me write a weekly column on their site. It has been a great experience working with Marc, and he is a very knowledgeable guy about football, both from the game angle and the fantasy side. The Bruno Boys has grown into an internet powerhouse when it comes to fantasy football, and their next stop is world domination. Plus it doesn’t hurt that the guy is a Niners fan like me. And being out in California, he often is able to give me the local perspective on my team when I am 3,000 miles away.
Finally, Jeff Mans from Fantasy Football Search (www.fantasyfootballsearch.com). Jeff is definitely one of the most plugged in guys that I have met since doing this fantasy project, and I have an incredible respect for his work. No one knows more about the lower levels of team’s depth charts than Jeff. He is always able to find the next guy well before they get on the field which is how he got the name The Fantasy Scout. We do two podcasts together on Tuesday night at 10 pm EST (www.blogtalkradio.com/midnight-oil) and Friday at midnight EST (www.fsc.fm) on the Fantasy Sports Channel. His passion for the game is tough to match and he was kicking my ass at this before I got the bright idea to start over. He is the heavy favorite in this competition, even though he has an unnatural love for Peter Gabriel (is that enough of a jinx?).
You can always email me at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com for any fantasy question. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the Fantasy Football Tonight podcast every Tuesday night at 10pm EST with myself and Jeff Mans. We will cover all the latest and greatest in fantasy football, and there is always some crazy things being discussed outside the world of football as well. Please join us, to listen go to www.blogtalkradio.com/midnight-oil. If that isn’t enough of Jeff and I for you, you can also now join us on the Fantasy Sports Channel on Blog Talk Radio for the Midnight Oil show. We will give you another hour leading into the weekend starting on Friday at midnight EST. Go to www.fsc.fm to listen.
