More 2008 MLB Fantasy Rankings–Rise to Stardom (Pitchers)
Continuing the series of guys who will rise to superstardom, we present the pitchers who will exceed expectations, even after being successful in 2007. They will not be among the first group of pitchers taken, but they will perform similar to that group.
Justin Verlander—DET—It is hard to go too much farther up from where Verlander already has been. He was 11-2 in his only 20 starts in the minor leagues, and has now won 35 games in just two full major league seasons. However, this season, I expect two things to increase in Verlander’s game. 20 wins are well within his grasp. He has a potent offensive lineup, and his division promises multiple starts against the Royals, White Sox, and Twins, all who figure to struggle this season. You can expect his ERA to drop to the low end of the 3.00, and his strikeouts to finally get back to where they were while he was in the minors. If he is able to top 200 innings again this season, expect his strikeouts to top the 200 mark.
Oliver Perez—NYM—Remember 2004? That’s where Perez will be again this year, except for an increase in wins. Perez has always had electric stuff, and in his first full season with the Mets he showed some of what made him someone nobody wanted to face that season. The Mets are going to make up for last season’s horrendous collapse and capture the NL East title this year, and with the addition of Johan Santana, some of the pressure is off of Perez. It is safe to expect 17-20 wins, a 3.10 ERA, and 185-200 K’s.
Francisco Liriano—MIN—His rise to superstardom was sidelined by Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2006 season, after he tried to return quickly from an elbow injury. Before that, Liriano burst on the scene as one of the nastiest pitchers to enter the league since Santana started torturing American League hitters. He went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 144 K’s in just 121 innings. Liriano has an overpowering fastball, a ridiculous slider, and an unhittable changeup. IF he is able to come back from TJ surgery (which was in October 2006), you could be drafting a first to second round pitcher in the much later rounds. He is a huge risk, huge reward player for 2008. Do yourself a favor, take the risk.
Felix Hernandez—SEA—Ever since he came up as a teenager in 2005, he has carried the nickname King Felix. Well, the crown hasn’t quite been put on his head yet. Felix has struggled in each of his first three seasons for the Mariners. Not saying he has been awful, his statistics many major league pitchers would sign up for in a heartbeat, but a pitcher with the hype of Felix Hernandez, fantasy owners expected much more. This is the best team that Hernandez has ever had behind him, and with the addition of Erik Bedard, some of the pressure is off of Hernandez to be the ace of the staff. 2008 should finally be the breakout that fantasy owners have been waiting for. Look for this to be year that Felix hits 18 wins a 3.15 ERA and over 200 K’s.
Aaron Harang—CIN—This is one guy who really doesn’t have to do much better than he has for the last couple of years to be a breakout candidate. He is only waiting to get the props that he truly deserves. Harang has won 32 games in the last two seasons for a average at best Reds team. He has been a workhorse, logging better than 230 innings in ’06 and ’07, and averaged 217 strikeouts during that time. The Reds are starting to improve some, so the win totals might get closer to the 20 plateau, and if he can get the ERA down under 3.50, Harang can move to one of the top 10 pitchers in the league.
Scott Kazmir—TB—Kazmir has to improve one last facet of his game before he can be placed in the same class as the elite pitchers in MLB, his pitch count. It seems that Scott gets too deep into the count, and walks too many batters, which in turn makes him unable to go deep into games. It also doesn’t help that he isn’t on the best team. Kazmir did lead the AL in strikeouts last year, ringing up 239 batters in just 203 innings, and his ERA was a very respectable 3.48. Many expect the Rays to be more competitive this season, which could also help boost his win total past 15 for the first time in his career. Kazmir needs just a couple of good breaks, and he could easily be within the ten best pitchers in baseball. Don’t be shocked to see 17 wins, a 3.20 ERA, and 250 K’s from this young fireballer.
As always, your questions (adds, drops, trades, draft questions, etc) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.
