Sleepers

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens. With the injury to Willis McGahee, not to mention his general ineffectiveness, Ray Rice looks like he will have a chance to make an impact with the Ravens right away, and perhaps will be starting Week 1. McGahee insists he will be ready for the opener, but the fact that he isn’t running on the field yet just two weeks before the opener makes me wonder. Rice was a dominating college back, and although he is short (5′8″), he is a powerful runner. He helped to put Rutgers college on the national college football map, and finished his final season with over 2,000 yards. In his last two years in college, Rice scored 44 touchdowns, so you know this guy can get the tough yards too. Through two preseason games, Rice has 89 yards and a touchdown for Baltimore, and is averaging 6.4 yards a carry. Even when healthy, McGahee isn’t exactly known for a guy who finds paydirt very often, so if Rice can take advantage of this chance that he will get, he could have a great fantasy impact as soon as this season.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears. Another rookie that looks like he might have found a great situation, Forte is looking like he will open the season as the starting running back for the Bears. With Cedric Benson shipped out of town, and Kevin Jones seemingly lost his ability to stay healthy, Forte doesn’t have much competition. Forte tore up his college competition, as he ran for over 2,100 yards and 22 touchdowns. OK, so he went to Tulane, which isn’t exactly USC, but those are some gaudy numbers. The Bears have long been a run-first team, but lately that has been because the passing game has been so atrocious. Don’t expect Kyle Orton to turn into Joe Montana, so Forte could be looking at some stacked up defenses. Even with a shaky passing game, this guy has the ability to be an every down back, and could be a bargain in your drafts.

Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins. I think I am going to get the munchies just writing about this guy, but seriously, he could make some noise in 2008. Williams has a chance to start the season right from the beginning, as Ronnie Brown is trying to recover from a torn ACL, and how is dealing with a thumb injury that is expected to keep him out of some preseason action. Ricky has been running like he did back when he first came to the Dolphins, and if he has his head on straight, and can focus on the football instead of the bong, he could pass Brown on the depth chart early. Don’t forget, this is a guy who rushed for over 1,800 yards, caught almost 50 passes, and scored 17 total touchdowns. Now, expecting those numbers would be crazy, but he should have a very solid season for a sure to be horrible Dolphins team.

Others to consider: Johnathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers; Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers; Thomas Jones, New York Jets; Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans; Steve Slaton, Houston Texans; Lamont Jordan, New England Patriots; Tatum Bell, Detroit Lions; Derrick Ward/Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants;

Busts

Busts are based more on their perceived value as you go into your draft as opposed to how they will actually perform. I’m not necessarily saying these guys will have horrible seasons and end up on the bench, but rather I don’t believe their statistics at the end of the season will not match up with where they were drafted in your league.

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings. Many anointed Peterson as perhaps the number one pick in fantasy drafts this season, and I just have one thing to say about that……..hold on with the coronation just yet. Perhaps he is everything they say, perhaps he is “the next big thing”, but I have a number of concerns before I am ready to knock LT off of his comfortable pedestal. First, Peterson had one great season. I’m not taking it away from him, but let’s see him do it more than once. Two, his injury history is as long as “War and Peace.” On top of the fact that he tore a ligament in his knee during his rookie year in the NFL, during his three year collegiate career he also dislocated his shoulder, suffered a high ankle sprain, and broke his collarbone in successive seasons. Three, he was an all or nothing type of player. His touchdown numbers were good, but ten of the twelve touchdowns he scored were in four games. That leaves 13 weeks of the fantasy season where he basically didn’t score for you, and let’s face it touchdowns are where you win and lose your matchups. Additionally, five different weeks he had 60 yards or less. The last thing that keeps him from the top for me is he doesn’t catch the ball at all. 19 catches over a full season is terrible for a RB, and he doesn’t get that added dynamic that the top few options get. He is a great back, but I find him to be over rated.

Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens. Even before his injury, the prospects for McGahee were starting to dim. The Ravens’ offensive line took a hit with the retirement of Johnathan Ogden, who was the anchor of that offensive line. Not only that, but between Troy Smith, Kyle Boller, and rookie Joe Flacco, the Ravens don’t have an NFL quarterback on their roster. Anyone who runs the ball for Baltimore won’t exactly have gaping holes to run through. Although Willis had a pretty good season in 2007, the rest of his career hasn’t been all that exciting. He has struggled to reach 4.0 yards a carry, and hasn’t score more than seven touchdowns since his rookie year. He is now recouping from arthroscopic knee surgery, and he might be the only person who thinks he will be ready for the opener. Rookie Ray Rice is ready to rip some running time away from Willis, so watch how high you draft McGahee.

Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints. I remember the night before the draft when it was reported that Mario Williams would be the number one overall pick the next day. The entire football world was killing the GM of the Texans for passing up the elite talent that was Reggie Bush. Two years later, Williams is looking like he might have been the right pick. Unless you are in a league that gives points per reception, Bush has been a COLOSSAL disappointment. He has yet to rush for 600 yards in a season, and has not approached even four yards a carry. He has rushed for 100 yards just once so far in his career, and has just ten rushing touchdowns in two seasons. Bush was supposed to come in and revolutionize the Saints offense and take them to the next level. So far, he hasn’t done any of that. He has had some injury problems in his first couple seasons, but even when healthy he hasn’t been effective. He still is dangerous in open space, but he has had trouble finding that. He is basically useless running between the tackles, and if he isn’t leaping over the top of the pack, he isn’t much help at the goal line either. It is too soon to give up on Bush as a fantasy back, but he will go much higher than he should in your draft, let someone else stretch for him.

Others to avoid: Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs, Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers; Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns; Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

As always, your questions (draft questions, adds, drops, trades) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.

Tags: Adrian Peterson, ahmad bradshaw, chris johnson, Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham, Jamal Lewis, johnathan stewart, lamont jordan, Larry Johnson, matt forte, Rashard Mendenhall, ray rice, Reggie Bush, ricky williams, Tatum Bell, Thomas Jones, Willie Parker, Willis McGahee

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