Top 15 NFL Impact Rookies
Rookies are a funny thing in fantasy football. Just like baseball, they are gobbled up in every draft in the hope of finding the next big thing. But unlike baseball, most of them struggle to find a role on the team, and few are fantasy relevant in their first seasons. Fantasy players are always looking to hit the jackpot with a young stud (Marques Colston), but are often disappointed (Reggie Bush). Here are the top 15 guys who have a chance in 2008 to help you towards a championship.
1. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders. Perhaps the most dynamic and complete running back in this season’s deep rookie class, McFadden will bring explosiveness to the Raiders offense that they haven’t had in years. McFadden rushed for over 1,800 yards in his final season at Arkansas, and also averaged a couple of receptions a game. McFadden has home run ability, as he can take any carry to the house. Darren rushed for 41 touchdowns in his three seasons in college, and definitely has the most hype of any rookie in 2008. He does have to deal with last season’s starter Justin Fargas, who rushed for over 1,000 yards last season, but I see McFadden getting more carries than Fargas a few weeks into the season. He should rush for 1,000+yards in his rookie year, and maybe score five or six times, depending on his offensive line and the maturation of JaMarcus Russell.
2. Johnathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers. This Oregon Duck rushed for over 1,700 yards in his final season in college, and was able to pump in 13 total touchdowns to go with it. Stewart rushed for 6.3 yards a carry in his final year, and he might have walked into the perfect situation in Carolina. He does have to deal with incumbent starter DeAngelo Williams, but he has already proven in this preseason that he has the skills to be a great NFL back, including a 100 yard game already. Stewart isn’t a tall back, but at 5′11″, he has break away speed and it looks like he will at worst be splitting carries with Williams from the start of the season.
3. Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions. I wasn’t a big fan of Chasing Amy, but how can you top Clerks? What? Oh, this is a different Kevin Smith. Well, that’s good because I don’t see Silent Bob being much of a back. This Kevin Smith has a great chance to start for the Lions right away, as only Tatum Bell and Artose Pinner standing in his way from the starting job. Smith led the NCAA is rushing yards last season, and certainly has the most upside of anyone on the Lions roster. With an effective passing game, Smith should have some opportunities to run the ball.
4. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers. Even though they have a quality starting running back in Willie Parker, the Steelers still couldn’t pass up the immense talent of Rashard Mendenhall in the first round of this season’s draft. He was expected to be taken in the first 10-15 picks, and the Steelers must have been salivating when he fell to them at pick 23. Mendenhall isn’t tall, but is built like a mack truck and also has great speed as well. Even though he won’t be the starter when the season starts, he should start eating into Parker’s carries immediately. If you draft him, don’t be discouraged if his first couple of games aren’t spectacular, he should have an impact before season’s end.
5. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles. With the injury to Kevin Curtis, Jackson has a real chance to start for the Eagles right off the bat. He is one of the preseason leaders in receiving yards, and has also made an impact as a return specialist. Jackson is starting to go earlier in drafts, and it appears the Eagles have some thoughts on him being a starter, as he didn’t play in the last preseason game.
6. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens. Willis McGahee is trying to come back in time for the opener as he comes back from knee surgery, but I don’t think he will make it back in time. This could open the door for Rice to prove his worth right away. He was a special runner in college, and helped put Rutgers foorball on the map. Does anyone know where Rutgers is on the map? Didn’t think so. Anyway, Rice is a short, stocky runner who is a tough runner who can get the short yards as well as take one all the way, as he scored over 20 touchdowns in his final year in college. McGahee is often injured or ineffective, so I expect that Rice will get his chance to get a decent number of carries right from the first game.
7. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears. Forte will be the starter in Chicago to open the season, although he hasn’t been great in the preseason. Through three games he had 86 yards on on 25 carries, which is less than 4.0 yards a carry. The Bears have always been a team that thinks run-first, and that will be the case again this season with Kyle Orton under center. With an unproven QB, and a rookie runner, don’t count on the Chicago offense to be overly productive.
8. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans. Slaton will begin third on the depth chart for the Texans, but is anyone excited about the production of Ahman Green or Chris Brown? Let me see a show of hands……anyone? I didn’t think so. Not only have they not been incredibly productive, but Green and Brown spend more time injured than the Yankees’ Carl Pavano. Slaton has averaged just over 4.0 yards a carry in the preseason, but is nursing a turf toe injury. He is expected to be ready for Week 1, and is a candidate to have an impact right away.
9. Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys. Jones was taken with the Cowboys’ first selection in the 2007 draft, and should take over the Julius Jones’ role in Dallas. I expect that Marion Barber will shoulder the majority of the load, so don’t expect Felix to carry as much as Julius did, but he should get his share of touches right off the bat. He is a nice change of pace from Barber, and is also able to catch the ball out of the backfield. Jones has had a decent preseason, and should be someone on your roster, just not sure I would start him on Week 1.
10. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans. Even though LenDale White had a pretty good season in 2007, the Titans still used a first round pick on Johnson, and he has been proving his talent this preseason. I don’t think anyone has a ton of confidence in White given his history, and Johnson has blazing speed. According to coach Jeff Fisher, it appears that Johnson has done enough this preseason that he is looking at sharing some of the load with LenDale White, who is himself a load.
11. James Hardy, Buffalo Bills. With only Josh Reed standing in his way for a chance to start for the Bills, Hardy could be on the field a lot in his rookie season. He was projected as a first round pick, but fell to the second round. He has at least been a semi-productive member of the offense in the preseason, and is a big, tall target for Trent Edwards to find.
12. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons. If there is one constant in the NFL, it is that rookie quarterbacks struggle every time. Of course there are a few exceptions, but the VAST majority have many tough games in their first season. Even when there is a rookie who has a successful first year, say like Ben Roethlisberger, it is even more rare that they are fantasy relevant in their first season. For example, Big Ben is the last really successful rookie that comes to mind, he only threw 17 touchdowns in his first year. If you are in a keeper league, I would stash Ryan on your bench. He has plenty of potential, as showcased by his 4,500+ yards and 31 touchdowns in his final collegiate season. He should struggle this year, but in the future, he has a great chance to be a good NFL quarterback.
13. Dustin Keller, New York Jets. Although the Jets have other options in Chris Baker and former Favre teammate Bubba Franks, Keller is probably the best pass catcher of the bunch. He is still raw, and isn’t much of a blocker, but he has the potential to be a good fantasy sleeper at tight end.
14. Devin Thomas, Washington Redskins. The Skins have a few options at wide receiver already, so don’t expect Thomas to start right away. He was talented enough to be a first round draft pick, but fell to Washington with the 8th pick in the 2nd round. Thomas registered 79 catches in his final season in college, and if he is given a chance, he could make an impact in his rookie year.
15. Mario Manningham, New York Giants. Manningham was dealing with an injury early in training camp which took chances away from him to be able to show his talents. He did finish strong, including five catches in the final preseason game against the Pats. Of course, not too many starters play in the last preseason game, but he did well nonetheless. He won’t be a starter, or even likely the third receiver to start the season, but if he gets his opportunity, Manningham could make some noise.
As always, your questions (adds, drops, trades) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours
Rutgers is in NJ, quick knocking them jerk off!
My point is that he isn’t from a big school. I don’t live that far from Rutgers in NYS, not trying to be a jerkoff, relax! Rutgers was a great story, and Rice helped make them nationally known. Big fan of both, don’t get so pissed.