Fight Chance Fantasy's Dynasty Question of the Week: Which player are you selling this offseason?
The offseason is when dynasty managers are laying a lot of groundwork to set up their team for the upcoming dynasty draft and season. What better way to make your team better than dabbling in some trades with fellow dynasty managers? The offseason is the best season because that means trades and drafts galore take place. For us here at Fighting Chance Fantasy, it's our favorite part of dynasty leagues! That leads us to our question of the week:
Which player are you selling this off-season?
Dynasty is so tough to manage because it feels like you're almost always in a dichotomy: Win now, or blow up and rebuild. Savvy managers knew the right times to get out of players to stay ahead, but those moves must be paired with great draft picks or capital for traded picks. You can argue that it's even harder now to sell running backs that have been in the league for over years. That said, chances are if you have Miles Sanders or Zeke Elliott, you're too late to sell for much value. The TL;DR version is I'm selling Breece Hall. Could he be the next Christian McCaffrey? Sure, it's in his range of outcomes. But rookie Zonovan " Bam" Knight also showed very well, and there's potential for an even split despite any talent gap, especially in the first half of the year. (Remember Javonte Wiliams and Melvin Gordon?) Could you get a high first-round pick for Hall? Dynasty Twitter is all sorts of hyped up and if someone is looking at a complete rebuild, Hall makes a lot of sense over the risk of potential landing spots for the top incoming rookies. Chances are you could parlay the higher first-round pick for another piece you need, or quite possibly 2023's version of Hall.
- Matt @DirtyAirFC
Players I am selling at this time of the year are the ones I fear will be replaced or at the very least, dealing with added competition. For me, I start by looking at young players with low draft capital. From there, analyze their situation -- competition, offensive live, quarterback, coach, etc -- and decide to sell, buy, or possibly hold. Let's dig into some examples.
Players topping that list this offseason include Isiah Pacheo (7th round), a fine player who helped seal the deal for Kansas City in this past Super Bowl. He managed 830 yards on the ground on 170 carries. Even with the likely departure of Jerrick McKinnon and the vanishing act of Clyde Edwards Helaire, Pacheco will definitely not be in the backfield alone in 2023. I know, it sounds like an ideal recipe for success moving forward for the young ball carrier. The issue is that Kansas City is going into the NFL Draft with 11 draft picks and will almost certainly be upgrading those roles.
On the same token, I'm also looking to sell Tyler Allgeier (5th round), who, unfortunately, is another player that fits the description. He had a solid rookie season, topping over 1,000 yards rushing on 210 carries. Allgeier got hot down the stretch to end the season, and I can understand why someone would be excited about Allgeier moving forward. With nine draft picks entering this draft and a coach that loves to run the ball, don't be surprised to see Atlanta bring in another back.
One more player that fits these criteria is Dameon Pierce (4th round). Another promising young back that played well when given the opportunity, he finished the season with 939 yards on 220 carries while missing four games to end the running back's rookie season. He could still be the main back in that offense next year, but with a new coaching staff and a strong running back class coming in, now is the time to sell high.
I get it, you're wondering why you should sell young running backs coming off of promising rookie seasons. These players have limited upside moving forward and that is due to their clearly defined roles in their respective backfields. Pacheco, Allgeier, and Pierce are all runners, not receivers. They serve their roles well, but this is fantasy football and we want our squad to be getting all the receiving work. For these guys, it boils down to their low draft capital and playing a position that the NFL doesn't care about anymore. For me, I am looking to sell high before the draft.
- @ConnerShears Conner Shears
When it comes to players to sell high on you have to think ahead and kind of predict that the players may fall off the pace that they set for themselves previously or could a superstar player that is creeping up in age could be in for a sharp decline in production. The first player that comes to mind to sell high on is Christian Kirk. Kirk's first year in Jacksonville was a year to remember. The wide receiver had a career year with 84 receptions for 1,108 yards, and eight touchdowns on 133 receptions. That is a phenomenal year right there, but don’t get too attached to that huge target share. During last season the Jaguars traded for suspended stud wide receiver Calvin Ridley who is sure to garner plenty of Trevor Lawrence’s looks in 2023. The time is now to unload Kirk for a possible first-round rookie pick.
Another receiver that dynasty managers should contemplate selling before his production falls off the cliff is DeAndre Hopkins. Going into last season there were no takers for the future Hall of Famer due to his lingering six-game suspension. But once he got back on the field. he lit the NFL on fire. Hopkins scored at least 18 PPR fantasy points in five of his first six games, and in the sixth game, he scored 13 fantasy points, which is still pretty damn useful if you ask me. He averaged 22.7 fantasy points per contest. Even when he lost his quarterback for the year he still scored and averaged 13 fantasy points in two of his last three games. Additionally, Hopkins is getting up there in age, and sometimes wide receivers start to break down a little more often as they get older. You should easily get a first-rounder for Hopkins, but the trade that might be really appealing is to try getting in contact with the Jameson Williams manager and seeing what kind of package you can pull off to get that promising young player and a rookie pick.
- Leo Grandio @smooth1074
Which player are you selling this off-season? What topic or questions would you like for us to cover in the upcoming weeks? You can reach us on Twitter at @FCFantasySports.