Five Game Parlay: Week 10
Things have gotten really interesting really fast in the Five Game Parlay. Four of the five competitors were over .500 for the week, and we now have a three way tie at the top. Not only that, but Steve had a great week and took advantage of a Gallina stumble to earn himself a tie for last and get within four games of the leader. With just eight weeks left, this is truly anyone’s competition. Let’s get right to the standings and the picks.
Drake 26-19 (3-2)
Gary 26-19 (3-2)
Ryan 26-19 (4-1)
Joe 22-23 (1-4)
Steve 22-23 (4-1)
Kansas City Chiefs -4 over Tennessee Titans. Mahomes is back. The Titans have less than zero chance. Next.
New York Giants -2.5 over New York Jets. Who's left on this Jets defense? Even with a depleted receiving corps the Giants are going to smash the hapless Jets. Saquon goes off, defensive TD, it's a route.
Dallas Cowboys -3 over Minnesota Vikings. Let's assume Dallas can be the team who pounded the Eagles and not the one who lost to the Jets. Without Adam Thielen I'm not sure the passing game of Minnesota can threaten the Dallas defense. Give me the 'Boys and the 3.
New Orleans Saints -13 over Atlanta Falcons. This is a HUGE nut to crack but Atlanta is SO bad that it shouldn't be hard for New Orleans to score points. This Saints defense is coming around and I'm expecting 60+ points in this dome shootout.
Baltimore Ravens -10 over Cincinnati Bengals. Another big spread but the Bengals are so hapless. I don't know if they'll even score 10 points let alone cover it. Lamar and the Ravens roll.
Chiefs -4 @ Titans
The Return of the Pat. Mahomes will be back and with a Freak vengeance. Assuming his knee and ankle are healed then the Titans despite their stout defense won’t be able to stop Tyreek, Kelce, Mahomes, and whoever Andy Reid choses to catch passes out of the backfield (Damien). I don’t see the Titans having the man power to keep pace with the Chiefs offense.
Bears -2.5 vs Lions
News just came out that Matthew Stafford is a Game Time Decision due to back issues… I don’t know a banged up or Out Stafford could put up points on the Bears. I don’t think the Bears offense is anything spectacular, but they do have weapons in David Montgomery and Allen Robinson who will be able to make their impact. IF the Bears lose this, Chase Daniel will be the new starting quarterback for the Bears, and I wonder about Nagy’s future.
Buccaneers -4.5 vs Cardinals
If this game was in Arizona I wouldn’t know who to pick, but at home with Evans, Godwin, RoJo, and Winston firing on all cylinders I think they will outpace the Cardinals. This doesn’t mean it won’t be a total shootout, but a couple crucial turnovers will decide this game, and despite throwing those interceptions Winston will be able to overcome and rally a last minute touchdown for the win.
Ravens -10 @ Bengals
The Ravens just demolished the Patriots. The Bengals are starting Ryan Finley at QB and were already the worst team in the NFL. This is one of the few double digit spreads I feel very comfortable about.
Giants -2.5 @ Jets
This is more about a bet against Adam Gase’s Jets than a bet for Daniel Jones and the Giants. Between Barkley and Tate the Giants have more than enough offense to roast the Jets. Hopefully Gase is gone before the beginning of week 11.
Kansas City Chiefs -4 over Tennessee Titans. Patrick Mahomes will be back, Ryan Tannehill isn’t that great, and the Titans secondary is falling to pieces. I know this is a road game for the Chiefs, but their offense will be all together, and while their defense isn’t that great, it won’t have to be in order to beat the Titans. The Chiefs should win this one by ten.
Buffalo Bills +3 over Cleveland Browns. The Browns offense is in disarray, and Baker Mayfield looks like he’s taken 20 steps back this year. They might be at home, but this is no time to have to face off against the Bills physical defense. Buffalo should force Mayfield into a couple of bad decisions, and Devin Singletary looks to solidify himself as the lead back for the Bills. Buffalo wins this one outright, but I’ll take the points too.
Baltimore Ravens -10 over Cincinnati Bengals. I give Ryan Finley little to no chance of success in his NFL debut against the Ravens. Baltimore’s defense has been improving their last couple of games, the Bengals offensive line is leaky at best, and A.J. Green is not returning this week. Not only that, but the Bengals defense is completely terrible as well and won’t be able to contain Lamar Jackson. Ten points on the road is a huge number against a divisional foe, but I might have been willing to give 20.
Carolina Panthers +5 over Green Bay Packers. I had a hard time with this one, but for me I expect this to be a close game, and five points seemed like a little much. The Packers have a suspect run defense, and the Panthers have the best running back in the league. McCaffrey should be good for a minimum of two touchdowns, and the Panthers secondary should be able to keep Aaron Rodgers under control The Packers could very well win this one at home, but I think Carolina can keep it within five.
Miami Dolphins +10 over Indianapolis Colts. I have been on the Miami bandwagon all year (and yes, I am sitting alone), but they haven’t been horrible against the spread this season. There is very little chance they win this game, but I have a hard time with a Brian Hoyer-led team being ten point favorites. The Dolphins will surely struggle to run the ball, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has looked halfway decent of late, and should be able to put a couple touchdowns up on the Colts. I don’t know what the score will be, but Miami should lose by less than ten.
Cleveland Browns -3 over Buffalo Bills. Many stats point to the Bills covering this week. For instance, the Bills are 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games when they’re an underdog. The Browns are just 2-6 ATS and 0-4 ATS at home this season. However, the Browns have their backs up against the wall and find themselves in a must win situation. The Bills may have a shut down pass defense, but they can be beaten on the ground. They gave up 127 rushing yards to the Redskins last week and 218 to the Eagles the prior week. Look for Nick Chubb and yes, Kareem Hunt, to lead the Browns to victory and cover the spread.
New York Giants – 2.5 over New York Jets. My Giants are bad but incredibly, the Jets are worse. The Giants win and cover.
Green Bay Packers – 5 over Carolina Panthers. While five points may seem a bit too high of a spread you have to figure the Packers are mighty ticked after the Chargers threw them a beating last week. The Pack have won four of their five home games this season by an average of 8.75 points. Christian McCaffrey scares me in this game but Aaron Rodgers will be charged for this game and will be able to lead several scores to offset McCaffrey’s two TDs. This game will probably go over and the Pack will cover.
Kansas City Chiefs – 4 over Tennessee Titans. Patrick Mahomes makes his triumphant return for the Chiefs this week. The Chiefs aren’t afraid of taking their act on the road. They are 4-0 on the road this season with a 3-1 record ATS in those games. The Titans are 0-3 against teams with a winning record and will lose to the Chiefs this weekend. Take the Chiefs to cover the spread.
Baltimore Ravens – 10 over Cincinnati Bengals. Some feel that the Ravens could be in store for a huge let down after having beaten the Pats last week. Even if they are still basking in the glow of their big Week 9 victory they can still easily cover this hefty spread. The Bengals are a bad team who probably realize that their star WR (A.J. Green) probably won’t play a down for them this season, and they are starting a rookie QB. The Ravens are too well coached to not show up for this game. I’m betting against this turning into a Ravens trap game. They should easily cover the spread.
This week I’m taking a little different approach. The lines in this competition are locked on Thursday, so I’m tracking the lines throughout the week and making my picks based on the movement. I’m hoping that by following Vegas and betting against the general public, I can have a nice 5-0 week!
Kansas City Chiefs -4 over Tennessee Titans. With the news that Patrick Mahomes is likely returning, this line as moved up to the Chiefs being a six-point favorite as of Saturday. Give me the Chiefs!!!
New York Jets +2.5 over New York Giants. This one confuses me. The Jets actually opened the week as one-point favorites in this one. Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard have been ruled out and the public still pushed the Giants up to almost field goal favorites? Something smells funny here, and I’m not referring to Ryan Hallam’s feet…
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 over Arizona Cardinals. Vegas originally set this line at 5.5 and the general public has pushed it to 4.5. I’m siding with the experts in Vegas on this one.
Green Bay Packers -5 over Carolina Panthers. This line opened with the Packers being a seven-point favorite. Other than Cam Newton being placed on the IR, there hasn’t been any significant injury news to justify the two-point movement, so I’m siding with Green Bay here.
Seattle Seahawks +6 over San Francisco 49ers. Other than Indy vs Miami (which I’m staying away from due to the injury questions), there isn’t much significant line movement to speak of. Because of that, I’m taking the Seahawks to cover here just because it should be a tough divisional game and I think six points is a lot for the Niners against a fierce competitor like Russell Wilson.