Five Game Parlay: Week 10
Ryan is out of town this weekend, so that means that I'm (Steve) in charge of the Parlay! I really wanted to change his writeups and make him look like a fool, but then after you see his picks, you will likely realize that on your own without my help. Plus I'm lazy, so I'm leaving them as is.
The last two week's I've gone 8-2 and jumped from last place up to second in the standings. Now only Joe Gallina stands in my way of winning this competition and repeating as champion for the second year in a row! Here are our current standings with last week's results in parenthesis.
Joe 24-21 (2-3)
Steve 21-22-2 (4-1)
Ryan 21-23-1 (4-1)
Drake 19-26 (2-3)
Polka 18-26-1 (2-3)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (- 3) over Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have lost four straight…because they’re bad. They don’t have much of a passing game. Their star RB Leonard Fournette is back, but for how long before he gets hurt again? They’ve scored an average of 11.5 points per game over the past four weeks. The Colts are a 3-5 team that has outscored their opponents 79-33 over the past two weeks and no one wants to play. Take the Colts.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-9.5) over Miami Dolphins. The Packers have lost two straight and desperately need a win to keep hope alive. They’re undefeated at home this season (well one of those games was a tie. That counts right?). The Pack are hosting a team from Miami who on average score the eighth fewest points per game in 32 degree weather. Brock (Osweiler) will break this weekend. Take the Pack and the points.
Arizona Cardinals (+16.5) over Kansas City CHIEFS. Both of these teams are terrible against the run. Give Kareem Hunt three TDs, and two for David Johnson. Tyreek Hill will have another quiet week at home (six TDs on the road, one at home) and give Travis Kelce a score as well. Throw in an extra TD on each side and I think that give us a 35-21 Chiefs win. Take the Cardinals to cover.
Los Angeles Chargers (-10) over OAKLAND RAIDERS. Which Raiders team shows up this week? The team that battled and finally gave into the Colts in Week Eight, or the team that threw in the towel against the 49ers last Thursday night? Doesn’t really matter. The Raiders have lost by at least 14 points in four consecutive games. That’s right, they’ve been outscored by a 129-44 margin in those four weeks. Take the Chargers. The 10 points are a gift.
Seattle Seahawks (+10) over Los Angeles RAMS. Both of these teams are coming off of a loss, but this game obviously means more to the Seahawks. While there has been a few blowouts over the years between these two teams, most of the games these two teams have played have been close. These teams know each other well. Don’t be too surprised if the Seahawks pull off an upset here…well maybe I’d be surprised if that happened, but I still think the Seahawks will cover the spread.
New Orleans Saints (-4) over Cincinnati Bengals. I realize that Drew Brees doesn't play quite the same when he's away from the friendly confines of the Superdome, but it's supposed to be sunny and 46 degrees in Cincy, and that "ain't too bad". The Bengals are dead last in total defense giving up almost 450 yards of offense against them per week. I'm not sure if you've heard, but this Saints offense is pretty darn-tootin' good and I think they steamroll the Bengals in Week 10.
Green Bay Packers (-9.5) over Miami Dolphins. The line on this game is a bit higher than I would like to see, but after seeing the Rams and the Patriots over the last two weeks, I can see the Packers piling it on to show the world they aren't as bad as their 3-4-1 record indicates. The Dolphins secondary is in a bit of disarray right now and I think Aaron Rodgers absolutely torches them.
Chicago Bears (-6.5) over Detroit Lions. Last week Matt Stafford was sacked 10 times by the Minnesota Vikings. That's not a typo. Ten times. Stafford misses his safety valve Golden Tate, and it isn't going to be pretty with Khalil Mack returning to the Bears' lineup on Sunday.
Seattle Seahawks (+10) over LA Rams. I'm chalking this one up to the spread being too big for a divisional game. Plus, the Rams defense has been disappointing, so I think the Seahawks can keep it close enough to cover the double digit spread.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) over Dallas Cowboys. Do you know what the Cowboys only chance to win this game is? It's if Ezekiel Elliott can have a great game. Unfortunately for Dallas, the Eagles possess the second best run defense in the league and I can't see Dak Prescott being successful enough on the road to keep this one close. I think the Eagles win big in Philly.
San Francisco 49ers (-3) over New York Giants. This might be a bit of a homer pick, but I just have zero confidence in the Giants right now. They just can’t score. I don’t expect Joe Monta….I mean Nick Mullens to repeat his performance from the last game, but San Francisco has had ten days to prepare for this game, and Kyle Shanahan knows how to keep a team motivated when there is nothing to play for. Give me the Niners.
Los Angeles Chargers (-10) over Los Angeles Raiders. Speaking of teams I have no faith in, let’s add the Raiders to that last. They also have had ten days to prepare for this game, but they just flat out suck. They can’t run the ball, the pass game is a mess, and the defense just gave up 34 points to a one win team with their third string quarterback. Philip Rivers should be able to massacre this team and put up 40 points.
Indianapolis Colts (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars. Add another team to the list of ones I have no confidence in and that is the Jags. Sure, they should be getting Leonard Fournette back, but I don’t know how healthy he is. Andrew Luck has been far better than I thought he would, and Marlon Mack has been excellent. The Colts are getting Jack Doyle back, and the Jags are a dumpster fire lately. Give me Indy.
New England Patriots (-6.5) over Tennessee Titans. Continuing my theme of teams I have no confidence in, I don’t like the Titans. I know they won the game on Monday Night, but the Cowboys aren’t that good, and now that means that Tennessee has a short week. The Patriots are still among the best teams in the league and I think they will beat the Titans by more than a touchdown.
Cleveland Browns (+4) over Atlanta Falcons. Anyone who follows me also knows I don’t like the Falcons. I am a little scared with this one, but I think the new look Browns can win this one. And by new look, I mean on the sidelines. Hopefully at home the Browns can keep it within a field goal if they don’t win.
NYJ Jets (-7.5) over Miami Dolphins. I feel bad for Jets fans. 99% are also Mets fans. These poor souls need something to cheer for.
New Orleans Saints (-4) over Cincinnati Bengals. Nobody looks better. Of course that means they’ll lose by 10 but at face value the Saints keep rolling.
Green Bay Packers (-9.5) over Miami Dolphins. Green Bay is favored my 9 ½, and it’s at home, and Aaron Jones is really starting to establish himself as the leader of the now two man backfield split with Jamal Williams and his pass catching. Miami just doesn’t feel like a team that thrives in cold and crappy Green Bay in the late fall. Randall Cobb is gimpy, but should play, and the Packers will be my pick in this tilt to cover that 9 ½. Just too much firepower for the Dolphins 26th total ranked defense (394ypg). They will be serving Dolphin with cheese in the frozen tundra on Sunday.
Detroit Lions (+6.5) over Chicago Bears. Again I’m going back to the well of poison water, the eternal disappointment Detroit Lions. They’re a 6 ½ point road dog, I live directly between the two cities, but sadly I’m a Lions life long suffering fan. The good news is they’re going cover this Sunday in Solider Field. The Bears secondary is a weak point in their newly better defense, and Stafford and crew will take full advantage of this hiccup. Bears may just win, but they will not cover the spread. Detroit cover 6 ½
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) over Dallas Cowboys. The defending Super Bowl champs are getting healthy at the right time of year, and newly acquired yards after catch expert Golden Tate are favored at home versus arch rivals, the Dallas Cowboys. Six point favorites seem low to me at home against a team that struggles to consistently produce points. Give me the Iggles and the six points.
Los Angeles Chargers (-10) over Oakland Raiders. Along with always picking the Lions, I seem to pick my AFC favorite the Chargers, who by the way belong in San Diego dammit, so move them back! The Chargers are 10 point road favorites, and with the Raiders basically trading away anyone with a heartbeat, so Chucky can draft an entire 53 man team this spring, the spread seems legit. The Chargers defense has been taking advantage of other teams errors lately and hopefully pass rusher extraordinaire Joey Bosa returns soon for a playoff push, Give me (San Diego), I mean L.A. Chargers to cover the 10 spot.
Los Angeles Rams (-10) over Seattle Seahawks. Lastly, the other new…again L.A. team the Rams, who’ve moved to Los Angeles twice in my life now from St. Louis, they went to Arizona first. Poor St. Louis is such a good sports city, and they’ve lost three NFL franchises in my life, anyway, I digress.Seattle is really playing decent football of late with their power run game setting up Russell Wilson and the pass game, but I don’t think it will be enough against the Rams and their juggernaut offense, give me the Rams to cover the 10 spot also. Hopefully I win a few games this week to get out of the pick’em cellar.