PGA DFS: 3M Open Rundown


PGA DFS: 3M Open Rundown

Jon Rahm outclassed the entire field and took down the Memorial Tournament at Jack Nicklaus’ home course last week. His victory at Muirfield Village Golf Club helped him jump ahead of Rory Mcllroy as the number one ranked player in the world. 

Many of the top players in the world are taking this week off, but some notable participants include Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, Bubba Watson, Paul Casey and Tommy Fleetwood. Former Minnesota Golden Gopher Erik van Rooyen will also be in the field. 

Before we get into the course and my picks for the week, let’s take a quick look at how my picks from last week finished. 

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Review of Last Week’s Picks

Core Plays

Jon Rahm - Winner (-9)

Xander Schauffele - T-13 (+1)

Patrick Cantlay - T-32 (+4)

Abraham Ancer - T-58 (+10)

GPP Plays

Gary Woodland - T-22 (+3)

Daniel Berger - MC (+4)

Bryson DeChambeau - MC (+5)

Dustin Johnson - MC (+16)

Honorable Mentions

Tony Finau - 8th (-2)

Harris English - T-13 (+1)

Collin Morikawa - T-48 (+8)

Kevin Streelman - T-54 (+9)

Paul Casey - MC (+4)

My Pick to Win

Jon Rahm (-16) 

Jon Rahm held off Ryan Palmer by three strokes to take down the Memorial Tournament. (AP Photo / Darron Cummings)

Jon Rahm for the win baby! He stumbled a bit on the back nine on Sunday but was still able to hold off Ryan Palmer by a solid three strokes. 9/13 of my picks made the cut and I hit five top-25 finishes. Not too shabby but let’s try to keep improving!  

Let’s take a closer look at the 3M Open and what to look for this week.  

The Course: TPC Twin Cities - Blaine, Minnesota, USA 

This week we’re headed to TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota for the second annual 3M Open. This event replaced the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour and the course has gone through some tweaks to better challenge the long-hitting PGA Tour players. Fairways have been slimmed down and they’ve added almost 350 yards of length to the original course.  

The Arnold Palmer-designed course almost feels like it was plucked right out of Florida, with 27 water hazards that guard and meander throughout the property. After seeing players struggle at an overcooked Muirfield Village course last week, they should have a much easier go at TPC Twin Cities. 

3M Open executive director Hollis Cavner definitely wants players to score birdies in bunches at this event, stating (via the Star Tribune), “We don’t want the hardest course on tour. We want birdies and train-wrecks. Bogeys are no fun.” 

The 27 water hazards certainly present plenty of opportunities for train-wrecks, but targeting birdie scorers will be critical this week. 

Here’s how I’m weighing my custom model on fantasynational.com this week:

  • Last 36 Rounds Played
  • Bent Grass Greens

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 15%  

Strokes Gained: Approach - 15%

Greens in Regulation - 15%

Opportunities Gained - 15%

Birdie or Better Scoring - 15%

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee - 10%

Strokes Gained: Putting - 10%

Bogey Avoidance - 5%

Enough said - let’s get to some picks!

Core Plays

Harris English - My Model Rank: 64th

Harris heads to TPC Twin Cities with impressive recent form, collecting back-to-back top-20 finishes at RBC Heritage and the Memorial Tournament. 

The former Georgia Bulldog is putting together a heck of a season - finishing T-17 or better in five of his last six starts on the PGA Tour. 

He has an excellent all-around game but has been on fire with his putter, ranking 4th in the field in Shots Gained: Putting. If we’re expecting a bunch of birdies this week, it always helps to roster players that have been rolling the rock well. 

I expect English to keep his momentum going this week and I think he’s a safe bet to make the cut and be in the mix on the weekend. 

Paul Casey - My Model Rank: 11th

Casey missed the cut on the number at the Memorial Tournament but I think it’s safe to buy in on him this week. 

The 27th ranked player in the world jumps out as one of the most complete players in the entire field. He ranks 10th in Shots Gained: Tee to Green and 3rd in Shots Gained: Approach. 

Paul Casey is one of the premier talents in the 3M Open player field. (AP Photo / Matt York)

Bent grass also happens to be his best putting surface, which is what we have at TPC Twin Cities. I’ll have Casey as a staple of many of my lineups this week. 

Roster him with total confidence. 

Lucas Glover - My Model Rank: 1st

Glover has been playing impressive golf lately and finds himself as the number one ranked player according to my custom model. 

He’s been lighting courses up since coming back from the COVID-19 break, making every single cut and piling up four top-25 finishes in his past five starts. 

He ranks first in the field in Birdie or Better scoring, second in Shots Gained: Approach and third in Shots Gained: Tee to Green. That’s certainly promising if you ask me. 

I fully expect Glover to make the cut and continue his excellent recent form. 

Tony Finau - My Model Rank: 2nd

Finau looked like he was poised to make a run at the Memorial Tournament but a six-over-par 78 on Sunday slid him back to a solo eighth place finish. Still, Finau was super sharp with his all-around game and gave us a reminder why he’s the 17th ranked player in the world. 

Tony is really standing out in my model, ranking first in Shots Gained: Tee to Green, third in Birdie or Better scoring, third in Shots Gained: Off the Tee, and sixth in Shots Gained: Approach. He has a lot of things lining up for him this week. 

I'm looking for Finau to continue his impressive stretch of play and I think he has a decent chance to come out on top when all is said and done. 

GPP Plays

Henrik Norlander - My Model Rank: 25th 

Henrik Norlander looks to build on his T-6 finish at the Memorial Tournament. (AP Photo / Gregory Bull)

Norlander has been playing some great golf lately - racking up four consecutive made cuts and a T-6 finish last week at the Memorial Tournament. The 33 year-old Sweden showed that he can compete with the best players in the world. He ranks in the top half of each stat that I'm weighing in my model. I think he puts in another solid showing this week. 

Emiliano Grillo - My Model Rank: 12th

Grillo hits absolute missiles off the tee and and should have plenty of scoring opportunities this week. He ranks fifth in Greens in Regulation and second in Opportunities Gained. We've seen bombers like Matthew Wolff find success at TPC Twin Cities and I think that Grillio has a chance to follow his footsteps and put together a great week. 

Sepp Straka - My Model Rank: 37th

Straka has made three straight cuts and had back-to-back top-15 finishes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the Workday Charity Open. I think TPC Twin Cities will play out as a similar event scoring-wise to those two events, giving me confidence that he can put together another great showing this week. He ranks 11th in Shots Gained: Off the Tee, 24th in Shots Gained: Putting and 26th in Birdie or Better scoring. 

Johnattan Vegas - My Model Rank: 20th

Vegas is shaping up to be a rock-solid play at the 3M Open. He excels with his driver and peppers greens consistently. He ranks second in the field in Shots Gained: Off the Tee, seventh in Greens in Regulation and third in Opportunities Gained. If he can get hot with his putter, look for Vegas to put in some serious work in Minnesota. 

My Pick to Win

Tony Finau (-17)

Tony continues his hot streak at the 3M Open and notches his second career PGA Tour victory with an impressive 17-under finishing score. 

Honorable Mentions

Richy Werenski - My Model Rank: 4th

Sam Ryder - My Model Rank: 5th

Hudson Swafford - My Model Rank: 16th

Erik van Rooyen - My Model Rank: 30th

Scott Stallings - My Model Rank: 58th

Bets I've Placed

Harris English 35-1

Erik van Rooyen 40-1

Sam Ryder 80-1

Emiliano Grillo 100-1

 

 

 




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