Week 5 Roundtable
Welcome to the Fighting Chance Roundtable! Each week we will be asking our panel of Fighting Chance Staff a series of questions for the upcoming slate of NFL games. Each person will give you the best answer to the question in order to help set your lineups this week, both season long and DFS. This week we have Steve Rapin (@fantasygeek37 on Twitter), Kacey Kasem (@thekaceykasem), Jim Day (@fantasytaz), Brian Drake (@drakefantasy), and myself, Ryan Hallam (@fightingchance). Please dear reader, enjoy the Week 5 Roundtable!
Sleeper of the Week
Jim’s Pick - Ty Montgomery, Running Back?, Green Bay Packers. With all 3 starting WRs hurt and Cobb already ruled out and Allison likely to be, Montgomery should get some added work in the slot. He may not get many rushing attempts, but he should see enough pass targets to make him a solid PPR play.
Steve’s Pick - Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR Green Bay. I didn’t want to pick this guy because I didn’t want to look up how to spell his name, but the opportunity he’s faced with this week is undeniable. Randall Cobb has already been ruled out, Geronimo Allison still hasn’t cleared the concussion protocol and is looking doubtful, and Head Coach Mike McCarthy has said that Valdes-Scantling is next in line. Davante Adams is also dealing with a calf injury and should see plenty of stud corner back, Darius Slay, so MVS could be a great play in Week 5. Let’s just call him MVS so we don’t have to look up how to spell it anymore.
Kacey’s Pick - David Njoku, Tight End, Cleveland Browns. With Baker Mayfield at the helm last week versus Oakland, Njoku put up 10.2 fantasy points in PPR settings. That was his highest number of the season. Njoku is a talented tight end and should be a shining star in a tight end landscape that is less than stellar. I look for him to have a bigger game against Baltimore at home in Cleveland this week.
Brian’s Pick – Taywan Taylor, Wide Receiver, Tennessee Titans. Bills slot corner couldn’t cover a table with a sheet. Taylor gets double digit targets and scores.
Ryan’s Pick – Cameron Meredith, Wide Receiver, New Orleans Saints. Meredith had one catch for a touchdown two weeks ago, got himself three catches on four targets last week, and I think his role will continue to grow if he can stay healthy. I mean obviously he’s not a threat to Michael Thomas, but with Ted Ginn out if he is on your waiver wire, he could be some very nice bye week insurance on a good passing offense.
Bust of the Week
Brian’s Pick - Joe Mixon, Running Back, Cincinnati Bengals. Coming off a knee scope he’s eased back into the lineup but that isn’t enough to salvage a day for his owners. Bengals lean on the pass instead.
Kacey’s Pick - Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback, Kansas City Chiefs. I’m sure I’ll get crap for this choice, but I don’t care. Mahomes hasn’t faced an elite defense this season, and this week he takes on Jacksonville. The Jaguars just don’t allow quarterbacks to pass for touchdowns, having given up only three touchdowns this season through the air. The quarterbacks they’ve gone up against haven’t been amazing, but I am predicting Mahomes does a lot less this week than he has in games he has already played.
Jim’s Pick - Carlos Hyde, Running Back, Cleveland Browns. Hyde faces a very tough Ravens’ defense that is ranked 2nd in points allowed to RBs and has only allowed 1 touchdown to RBs on the season. While Hyde has been strong so far, he did lose some touches to Duke Johnson last week and I expect that trend to continue this week.
Steve’s Pick - Doug Baldwin, Wide Receiver, Seattle Seahawks. I like Doug Baldwin a lot. I actually just traded away Dalvin Cook for him in a one-for-one player swap in one of my leagues, but while I like him for the rest of the season, I don’t like him this week against the Rams. The Seahawks look a bit out of sync right now, and when you factor that into his recent history where he had only five receptions (on 12 targets) for 43 yards in two games against the Rams last season, I don’t expect him to shine bright in Week 5.
Ryan’s Pick – Julio Jones, Wide Receiver, Atlanta Falcons. I have long been a Julio hater, so why not continue that? He has been racking up the receptions and yards as usual, but the end zone still eludes him. I’m not saying don’t play him, but don’t look for a ten catch, 100 yard and a touchdown kind of afternoon.
Expectations For Mark Ingram’s Return
Kacey Says - I expect things to go back to normal with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Kamara might come back down to earth and not have these 40 point games we’ve gotten used to with Ingram being out. Now that Ingram is back, I expect Kamara’s workload to slow down a little. He’s still going to put up baller numbers, but I think Ingram is going to get you at least flex-worthy points this week. I traded for him in one league where I’m desperate at running back, so those fingers are crossed he can get double-digit points this week.
Brian Says - Immediately takes back his role with the Saints. I predict 100yds and a score. They need to lighten Kamara‘s load.
Steve Says - Last season after New Orleans shipped off Adrian Peterson to the Cardinals, Mark Ingram appeared in 12 games for the Saints. In those 12 games, he was a top-seven fantasy back in seven games, a RB2 in two games, a RB3 in two games, and a RB4 in one game. With Alvin Kamara emerging into a bona fide superstar, I think they ease Ingram back into action in Week 5 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he saw 10-15 touches and finished as RB2. For the rest of the season, I think he will likely be that lower end RB1 or higher end RB2 on most weeks in my rankings.
Jim Says - I expect Mark Ingram to see about 15 touches in his first week back. With those touches I am looking for about 85 rushing yards and a 50/50 shot at a touchdown. He should also get 2-3 receptions for an additional 10-15 yards.
Ryan Says – I expect Ingram to be eased in a little bit, but still to see double digit touches in his first game back. I don’t look for him to be as much a part of the passing game as he was last year, but I do expect that he will get some tough carries between the tackles and have himself a nice game. 60 yards and hopefully a touchdown upcoming in Week 5.
Which Surprising Running Back Do You Trust More: Marshawn Lynch or Matt Breida?
Steve Says – Marshawn Lynch. While I’m worried about the 32-year old Lynch wearing down as the season progresses, he’s much more of a proven commodity for fantasy purposes. Breida hasn’t proven anything yet, has been battling injuries, and has a second-string quarterback running the show in San Francisco. I wish they would scale back slightly on the near 20 touches a game that Lynch is receiving now, but I trust him way more than Breida going forward.
Jim Says – Marshawn Lynch. I trust Marshawn Lynch more than Matt Breida for the rest of season. Breida will continue to lose snaps to Alfred Morris and I do anticipate defenses crowding the box more on SF. Lynch has been very strong all year with a TD in each game except week 4 when a eager ref prematurely blew the whistle to stop play just as Lynch broke loose for what would’ve been a TD.
Brian Says – Marshawn Lynch. I’m all about Marshawn Lynch. He’s handling a tremendous volume weekly and is involved in the passing game. Brieda is banged up and his value will be tied to catching passes weekly. Needs to score more to match Lynch rest of the season.
Kacey Says – Marshawn Lynch. Beast Mode, baby. I drafted a lot of Marshawn Lynch this season because I felt he’d be a viable RB2. I think he has shown that he can handle that job this season, and I look for him to keep it up as the year progresses.
Ryan Says – Marshawn Lynch. As much as I like Matt Breida, I have to go with Lynch here for two reasons. The first is the health of Breida. He suffered a shoulder injury in the preseason that seemed serious that he was able to work back from. Now he is dealing with another injury, and I worry he won’t be able to hold up all season. The other reason is Lynch is just getting more volume. He doesn’t catch passes, but Lynch has 18+ carries in three straight games and has very little competition for snaps. Breida is an exciting player, but I don’t know that he is a 15+ carry a game guy.
Which Surprising Receiver Do You Trust More? John Brown or Tyler Boyd?
Brian Says – Tyler Boyd. I’m lucky enough to own both in a league. I love Boyd’s targets and with Eifert going down and the Bengals RB’s beat up he’s locked into a massive role.
Kacey Says – Tyler Boyd. Tyler Boyd is my guy this season. I love how well Andy Dalton has been playing, and Boyd has gained so much from this. With Tyler Eifert breaking his ankle and A.J. Green finding ways to get injured himself, I look for Boyd to have a big rest of the season. Get that dude if you didn’t already
Jim Says – Tyler Boyd. While John Brown has always been known to be a good receiver, injuries usually came up to kill his fantasy value. For that reason, I trust Tyler Boyd more. Dalton has been playing at a very high level and I expect that to continue. Boyd is coming off a 15 target game and while I don’t expect that many targets each week, he should continue to see his average of 9 targets a game.
Steve Says - Easy Peasy…Tyler Boyd. John Brown has played incredible this season, but he’s averaging a whopping 22.5 yards per reception so far and that’s simply unsustainable. He’s never averaged over 15.4 yards per receptions in any given season, so I feel the regression is coming. I think the main reason I trust Boyd more is the nature of his role. The short-to-intermediate passes that Boyd lives on, are much more conducive for consistent fantasy success than the big plays that we see from John Brown. Especially if you play in PPR leagues, Boyd should be your guy.
Ryan Says – Tyler Boyd. Boyd was a great college receiver at Pittsburgh, and is finally living up to his potential. I do worry that the Cincy passing game can’t play this well all year, but I trust them more than I do John Brown. He is a nice receiver put is playing out of his mind right now, and I don’t think it is sustainable. So while I don’t know if Boyd will quite keep this up all year, I have more faith that his floor is higher than John Brown’s is.