Week 9 DFS Values
Whoa, guys. We’re halfway through the season already? Where has the time gone? We better start making it count before the season is over, so to get you started, here are a few players with value salaries and higher ceilings. Some of these may be repeat selections from previous articles, but hey, if it works, it works!
(Salaries are from DraftsKings’ Classic 11-Game slate for November 7, 2021.)
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Houston Texans ($5,800)
Tua Tagovailoa has been quietly consistent since returning from injured reserve this season, aside from a matchup against the Buffalo Bills secondary in Week 8. This week, he’ll look to get right again in a matchup against the Houston Texans, a team whose defense has allowed 20.44 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. They’ve also allowed four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, giving Tua a higher ceiling in this matchup. This game also has the potential to be a shootout, as Miami’s defense is marginally worse than the Texans. Tua should shatter value at this salary.
Taysom Hill vs. Atlanta Falcons ($5,500)
Take this one with a grain of salt, as we’ll need to monitor the status of Taysom Hill ahead of Week 9’s matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. He’s been in concussion protocol since Week 5, but all signs indicate that he should return this week. Hill isn’t the kind of quarterback who will shatter passing records (nor should you expect anyone to in this offense). Instead, Hill gives you value based on his rushing ability. In the four games he started last season, Hill never threw over 300 yards, but he still recorded 24.22 points, 17.52 points, 23.58 points, and 18.94 points because of his legs. This year, Atlanta is giving up 21.25 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position, 28th in the league. If he’s good to go, I love Hill to return value.
Jordan Love @ Kansas City Chiefs ($4,400)
When the blockbuster news of Aaron Rodgers’ COVID-19 positive test broke Wednesday morning, all eyes shifted to second-year quarterback Jordan Love. Although we haven’t seen him in a regular-season matchup thus far in his career, Love looked like a competent starter in the preseason, registering 197 yards in the first half against the Buffalo Bills. Week 9 brings a matchup against a pillow-soft Kansas City Chiefs defense that is allowing 23.14 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. At $4,400, Love doesn’t have to dazzle to exceed value; he just needs to be competent.
Tee Higgins vs. Cleveland Browns ($5,300)
After an embarrassing loss to the New York Jets last week, the Cincinnati Bengals will look to get right against a Cleveland Browns team that is in free-fall. Part of that get-right plan will be built around Tee Higgins who has seen 21 targets in his previous two games. The Browns’ secondary is banged up, with cornerback Denzel Ward questionable for this week’s matchup. If Ward doesn’t go, Troy Hill should be assigned the monumental task of covering Ja’Marr Chase, leaving Higgins with an exploitable matchup against Greg Newsome II. It’s time for Higgins to find the end zone again, and I like him to do that this week against the Browns.
Hunter Renfrow @ New York Giants ($4,800)
Hunter Renfrow has had a quiet but consistent year in 2021, averaging 12.8 fantasy points per game on Draft Kings. He’s had eight targets in three of the past four games this season and is recording a 74.5% catch rate. This week, the Raiders get a matchup against the New York Giants who rank 21st against the wide receiver position. Renfrow should continue to see target volume out of the slot, and his route-running ability should give him the advantage over New York’s corners. At $4,800, he has a higher floor than several other value plays on this slate, making him an ideal plug and play for Sunday.
Tajae Sharpe @ New Orleans Saints ($4,200)
Star wideout Calvin Ridley was absent from practice against on Wednesday, making it highly unlikely that he plays this Sunday against the New Orleans Saints. In his absence in Week 8, it wasn’t Russell Gage who stepped into his place; it was Tajae Sharpe. Sharpe saw a team-high six targets with five receptions for 58 yards and played 68% of offensive snaps. The Saints are 29th in the league against opposing wide receivers, surrendering 42.67 fantasy points per game. The Saints are also one of the best against the tight end position (5th), so Kyle Pitts may be a non-factor, opening the door for Sharpe. At $4,200, he should return value and then some.
Rashod Bateman vs. Minnesota ($4,000)
Rashod Bateman’s salary is directly related to the lack of games he’s played this season, not to his talent on the field. In his two games this season, he played 65% and 63% of the offensive snaps and saw six targets in each. This week, the Ravens face the Minnesota Vikings who have allowed 40.26 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, 27th in the league. While Bateman has only averaged nine fantasy points per game this season, the Ravens are “working him in,” and after their bye, he’s due to go off this week.
James Conner @ San Francisco 49ers ($5,300)
What James Conner has lacked in yardage production this season, he’s more than made up for with touchdown production. In fact, Conner is second in the league in touchdown scoring on the season, behind only Derrick Henry. With Kyler Murray banged up this week, the Cardinals should rely heavily on the run game against the San Francisco 49ers. That is extremely beneficial to Conner, who has seen the bulk of the red zone work. While I normally caution against touchdown-dependent skill players, Conner’s production doesn’t look to be slowing down any time soon.
Javonte Williams @ Dallas Cowboys ($4,800)
While everyone thought that Javonte Williams would lay claim to the Denver Broncos backfield by now, he is still sharing the load with veteran Melvin Gordon. Despite his shared workload, Williams has tremendous upside. Per Dwain McFarland of PFF, Williams has a missed tackle rate of 36% (1st), 14% in explosive run rate (10th), and averages 3.4 yards after contact per attempt (7th). While the matchup against the Dallas Cowboys doesn’t look great on paper, Williams should be able to exploit their defense with his pass-catching ability. Dallas is 9th against the run but only 18th against pass-catching running backs. If Denver uses him correctly, Williams is in line for a huge game.
Tyler Conklin @ Baltimore Ravens ($3,000)
In the wasteland that is the tight end position, Tyler Conklin has quietly been a consistent fantasy option this season, currently sitting at TE15. Last week against the Dallas Cowboys, Conklin played 82% of the offensive snaps, registering five catches on seven targets for 57 yards. This week, Conklin gets a primo matchup against the Baltimore Ravens who are the worst in the league against the tight end position. The Ravens are tied for 10th best in the league against the wide receiver, so Kirk Cousins should send plenty of looks Conklin’s way, making him a steal at $3,000.
Marcedes Lewis @ Kansas City Chiefs ($2,900)
As with most of my value tight end plays, Marcedes Lewis is a gut call, but hear me out. After Robert Tonyan went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 8, Lewis played 42% of the snaps. He also benefits from being one of the only healthy pass-catching tight ends left on the roster as well as having Jordan Love under center. As an added benefit, as with most of their defense, Kansas City is 31st in the league against the tight end. At $2,900, he doesn’t have to explode to return value, leaving you free to pay up at another position.
There you have it! Let me know what you think and if a player cashes for you this week by following me on Twitter @Britt_Flinn. Good luck!