Player Props: Week 11
After a two-week span in which nine of my 10 player prop suggestions were losers, taking a hiatus from writing this column seemed like the right thing to do. I admit that my recent cold streak has gotten me down and at times it’s made me question my ability to pick a winner. Maybe I’m delusional, but I still trust my process, but my 14-17 season long won/loss record demonstrates the reality of gambling. Many hate to admit it, but hot and cold streaks are very common for people who bet on sports, or anything for that matter. Let’s see if I can bounce back. Here are my five favorite player prop picks for Week 11.
Please remember that gambling is super risky and you should only use funds that you can afford to lose.
Jordan Love over 231.5 passing yards
Love takes on the New York Giants who have given up the sixth most passing yards (2442) this season. Love only threw for 176 yards this past Monday night but when playing against soft pass defenses this season, he has excelled. He threw for 360 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers and 337 yards against the Dallas Cowboys, both of whom have suspect pass defenses. Love has taken advantage of his opportunities this season and should do so again in Week 11. He’s thrown for over 231.5 yards in five games this season and should do so again this week.
Woody Marks over 61.5 yards
Marks, who played 80% of the Houston Texans’ offensive snaps last week, looks like he’s now the team’s primary RB. It’s a great time for him to receive a promotion since he takes on the Tennessee Titans who have given up 4.92 YPC to RBs this season. Unless Marks’ Week 10 increase in playing time was due to Nick Chubb’s foot injury that limited him in practice last week, look for Marks to once again to take the majority of snaps out of the Texans’ backfield. If he does, he should easily rush for over 61.5 yards this weekend.
Jayden Higgins over 1.5 receptions
Davis Mills will be under center for the Texans this week and in two of his three games as the team’s starting QB, Higgins has had over 1.5 receptions. Higgins has become more involved in the Texans’ passing offense of late, snagging at least four receptions in two of his last three games. Look for Mills to eclipse two receptions against the Titans this week.
Joe Flacco over 256.5 passing yards
In what could be one of his last starts for the Cincinnati Bengals, Flacco takes on the Pittsburgh Steelers who have given up the most passing yards to QB over the past five weeks and the second most passing yards to the position for the season. We all know how great his receiving weapons are but with Joe Burrow close to making a return, Flacco may have an extra incentive to prove that he can still effectively sling the ball. The last time that Flacco played the Steelers he threw for 342 passing yards. Look for him to throw for at least 257 this week.
Tee Higgins over 4.5 receptions
If I think Flacco will have a big week, then I’ve got to believe that his receivers will as well. Higgins has had at least five catches in three of his last four games, including six against the Steelers in Week 7. The Steelers have given up the most receptions to WRs over the past five weeks and the most to WRs over a full season.
James Cook over 81.5 rushing yards
Only one team (Seattle Seahawks) has run the ball more than the Buffalo Bills this season. Look for the Bills to continue to make running the ball the focal point of their offense when they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11. The Bucs are giving up 4.38 YPC to RBs. Look for Cook to rush for at least 82 rushing yards in Week 11.